La LigaEstadi Ciutat de València, Valencia25°16 km/h

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    LevanteLevanteBalanced & physical
    vs
    FC BarcelonaFC BarcelonaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · FC Barcelona (71%)Best value by the model: 1 · Levante @ 18.50 (+110 %)

    Levante – FC Barcelona · La Liga

    1 · Levante 11%X 18%71% FC Barcelona · 2

    Analysis: Levante – FC Barcelona

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    A clash of styles will define this matchup, with Levante's balanced and physical approach facing off against Barcelona's possession-heavy and high-press tactics. The hosts will likely find themselves on the back foot, given the visitor's ability to dominate possession and dictate the tempo. Levante's defense, which has been conceding 1.6 expected goals against per match, faces a daunting task against a Barcelona side that boasts an impressive 3.4 expected goals per game.

    The numbers paint a stark picture of Barcelona's supremacy. Not only are the visitors on a four-game winning streak, but their head-to-head record against Levante since 2022, albeit small with only two matches, shows complete dominance. Barcelona secured victory in both encounters, a trend that aligns with their current form and statistical edge in both points and expected points.

    While Levante's balanced approach has its merits, their offensive output, with an expected goal tally of just 1.01, falls short against a Barcelona defense conceding just 0.54 expected goals per match. The model suggests a 71% probability of an away win, with the most likely scorelines being 1-2 or 0-2, both at 10% likelihoods. With a high 65% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals, Barcelona's attacking prowess could very well dictate a high-scoring affair.

    Though Barcelona seems the clear favorite, value hunters might raise an eyebrow at the 14.5 odds for a Levante victory offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this as an 11% probability, translating to a significant 65% edge. Despite the odds, however, the smart money remains on the visitors to maintain their streak, with a likely scoreline of 0-2 and a tilt towards the over on goals.

    LevanteLevante
    Form LLDWD
    League ranking xG #12xGA #17xT #12xP/match #18Points #11
    Key players
    • Jon Ander OlasagastiLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
    • Enzo BardeliFxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
    • Adrian De La FuenteCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.23
    FC BarcelonaFC Barcelona
    Form LWWWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • RaphinhaFxG 0.90 · xT 0.02
    • Fermin LopezRWxG 0.71 · xT 0.24
    • Lamine YamalRWxG 0.66 · xT 0.35

    Match prediction: Levante – FC Barcelona

    Predicted score matrix

    FC Barcelona →
    Levante →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.8%
    0–18.1%
    0–29.7%
    0–37.5%
    0–4+7.5%
    1
    1–03.4%
    1–18.6%
    1–29.7%
    1–37.5%
    1–4+7.6%
    2
    2–01.8%
    2–14.2%
    2–24.9%
    2–33.8%
    2–4+3.8%
    3
    3–00.6%
    3–11.4%
    3–21.6%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+1.3%
    4+
    4+–00.2%
    4+–10.4%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-210%
    2. 2.0-210%
    3. 3.1-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-38%
    Expected goals
    1,01–2,33
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,535%
    @3.76EV+33%
    Over 2,565%
    @1.34

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • FC Barcelona to win71%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.71

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • FC Barcelona to win71%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Lamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebana to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Lamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebana to score30%
    • Kervin Fabián Arriaga Villanueva to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Levante11% probability@18.50BetsafeEV+110%reference odds
    • 1 · Levante11% probability@18.50BetssonEV+110%reference odds
    • 1 · Levante11% probability@18.50NordicbetEV+110%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · LevanteX2 · FC Barcelona
    Betfair Exchange
    EV+ 48%
    13.00
    EV+ 42%
    8.00    		1.23
    Betsafe
    EV+ 110%
    18.50
    EV+ 19%
    6.70    		1.17
    Betsson
    EV+ 110%
    18.50
    EV+ 19%
    6.70    		1.17
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 110%
    18.50
    EV+ 19%
    6.70    		1.17
    Paddy Power
    EV+ 2%
    9.00
    EV+ 7%
    6.00    		1.22
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 68%
    14.77
    EV+ 68%
    9.43    		1.15

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 15:38

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an FC Barcelona win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 1.20 to 1.15 (−5%).

    1+25 %
    10 %5 %

    11.81 → 14.77

    X+21 %
    14 %9 %

    7.79 → 9.43

    2-5 %
    84 %79 %

    1.20 → 1.15

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Levante 0Draw 0FC Barcelona 2
    Goals: 2–6 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • FC Barcelona come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Levante
    FC Barcelona
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Levante (5–5)
    FC Barcelona (17–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Levante
    Aïssa Mandi: 214 passningar, xT 0.12MandiAdrian De La Fuente: 196 passningar, xT 0.89FuenteManu Sanchez: 187 passningar, xT 0.57SanchezMathew Ryan: 142 passningar, xT 0.06RyanOriol Rey: 108 passningar, xT -0.01ReyJon Ander Olasagasti: 84 passningar, xT 0.1OlasagastiEnzo Bardeli: 82 passningar, xT 0.18BardeliNacho Pérez Gómez: 75 passningar, xT 0.18GómezThiago Cruz Fernández: 43 passningar, xT 0.23FernándezIvan Romero: 37 passningar, xT 0.04RomeroRoger Brugue: 34 passningar, xT 0.03Brugue
    FC Barcelona
    Pau Cubarsi: 251 passningar, xT 0.34CubarsiGerard Martin: 227 passningar, xT 0.36MartinPedri: 225 passningar, xT 0.24PedriAndreas Christensen: 186 passningar, xT 0.04ChristensenXavi Espart Font: 183 passningar, xT 0.37FontJules Kounde: 173 passningar, xT 0.26KoundeEric Garcia: 169 passningar, xT 0.39GarciaLamine Yamal: 160 passningar, xT 1.04YamalRodrigo Hernández Cascante: 128 passningar, xT 0.05CascanteMarc Bernal: 124 passningar, xT 0.06BernalJoan García: 114 passningar, xT 0.04García
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Levante
    Aïssa Mandi: 214 passningar, xT 0.12MandiAdrian De La Fuente: 196 passningar, xT 0.89FuenteManu Sanchez: 187 passningar, xT 0.57SanchezMathew Ryan: 142 passningar, xT 0.06RyanOriol Rey: 108 passningar, xT -0.01ReyJon Ander Olasagasti: 84 passningar, xT 0.1OlasagastiEnzo Bardeli: 82 passningar, xT 0.18BardeliNacho Pérez Gómez: 75 passningar, xT 0.18GómezThiago Cruz Fernández: 43 passningar, xT 0.23FernándezIvan Romero: 37 passningar, xT 0.04RomeroRoger Brugue: 34 passningar, xT 0.03Brugue
    FC Barcelona
    Pau Cubarsi: 251 passningar, xT 0.34CubarsiGerard Martin: 227 passningar, xT 0.36MartinPedri: 225 passningar, xT 0.24PedriAndreas Christensen: 186 passningar, xT 0.04ChristensenXavi Espart Font: 183 passningar, xT 0.37FontJules Kounde: 173 passningar, xT 0.26KoundeEric Garcia: 169 passningar, xT 0.39GarciaLamine Yamal: 160 passningar, xT 1.04YamalRodrigo Hernández Cascante: 128 passningar, xT 0.05CascanteMarc Bernal: 124 passningar, xT 0.06BernalJoan García: 114 passningar, xT 0.04García

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceLevanteFC Barcelona
    Points512
    xPoints4.39.9
    xG per match1.13.4
    xGA per match1.60.54
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.191.1
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.380.03
    Playing styleLevanteFC Barcelona
    Build-up efficiency0.320.33
    Field tilt0.330.78
    xT per match0.731.8
    xTA per match0.810.47
    Won balls, offensive half1927
    Pressing intensity0.220.21
    Pressing efficiency0.230.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.180.23
    Entries into the box per match720
    Entries into the box against136
    Pass completion %0.770.86
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.8
    Passes per match323595
    Passes against per match427247
    Switches of play per match29.131
    Long balls per match3330
    Set piecesLevanteFC Barcelona
    xG from free kicks0.020.12
    Corners per match3.56.5
    Corners against per match5.83.5
    xG per corner0.050.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.360.64
    First touch, defensive corners %0.260.57
    OtherLevanteFC Barcelona
    Throw-in control0.730.82
    The goalkeepersMathew Ryan (Levante)Joan García (FC Barcelona)
    Saves178
    Save %77%80%
    xG prevented54%70%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Levante
    Fixtures, form & tips
    FC Barcelona
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Levante vs FC Barcelona according to our model?

    The model gives FC Barcelona a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Levante 11%, draw 18%, FC Barcelona 71%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.