Espanyol vs Sevilla FC: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

La Liga6 September 2026 21:00 CESTRCDE Stadium, Cornellà de Llobregat29°10 km/h

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EspanyolPossession control

Sevilla FCPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Espanyol (39%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.29 (+7 %)

1 · Espanyol 39%X 33%29% Sevilla FC · 2

39%

33%

29%

Analysis: Espanyol – Sevilla FC

Erik Lindberg · 1 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The model suggests a slight edge for Espanyol with a 39% win probability, but the real story here might be found in the draw, rated at 33%. With both teams leaning heavily on possession control, the likelihood of a stalemate is significant. The most probable scorelines—1-1 and 1-0—further support a low-scoring affair, with the under 2.5 goals sitting at 58%. Espanyol's home advantage clashes with Sevilla's slight superiority in recent head-to-heads and traditional match metrics.

Espanyol has only secured 3 points compared to Sevilla's 6, while both teams display comparable xG figures, 1.3 for the hosts and 1.4 for the visitors. The small sample size of four head-to-head encounters since 2022 offers limited influence; Sevilla leads with two wins. Interestingly, both squads struggle to convert pressure into goals quickly, evident in their low xG within 8 seconds of ball recovery—0.21 for Espanyol to Sevilla's 0.29.

For those seeking a value bet, the draw at odds of 3.15 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet presents a modest edge, with the model rating it 33% against the implied probability of 30%. A 1-1 draw seems the most plausible outcome, aligning with both teams' styles and current form.

Espanyol

Form WDWLL

League ranking xG #9xGA #15xT #14xP/match #7Points #13

Key players

Roberto FernandezFxG 0.51 · xT 0.01
Álex Calatrava TorradoFxG 0.26 · xT 0.02
Roger Hinojo EstradaLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.23

Sevilla FC

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #8xGA #12xT #11xP/match #8Points #6

Key players

Robbie UreFxG 0.20 · xT -0.03
OsoLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.11
Chidera EjukeRWxG 0.07 · xT -0.01

Match prediction: Espanyol – Sevilla FC

Predicted score matrix

Sevilla FC →

Espanyol →

0–09.8%

0–110.0%

0–25.8%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.8%

1–011.4%

1–113.5%

1–27.3%

1–32.7%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.4%

2–18.2%

2–24.5%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.1%

3–13.4%

3–21.9%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,25–1,11

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.60

Over 2,542%

@2.41EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Espanyol or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Espanyol or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Roberto Fernández Jaén to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Roberto Fernández Jaén to score22%
Nemanja Gudelj to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw33% probability@3.29PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
X · Draw33% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
X · Draw33% probability@3.20BetssonEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Espanyol	X	2 · Sevilla FC
Betsafe	2.22	EV+ 4% 3.20	3.35
Betsson	2.22	EV+ 4% 3.20	3.35
Nordicbet	2.22	EV+ 4% 3.20	3.35
Paddy Power	2.20	EV+ 4% 3.20	3.10
Pinnacle	2.27	EV+ 7% 3.29	3.41

Odds updated 4 Sept, 12:30

Odds movement

1-2 %

44 %39 %

2.31 → 2.27

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.28 → 3.29

2+8 %

32 %27 %

3.17 → 3.41

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Espanyol 1Draw 1Sevilla FC 2

Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Espanyol

Sevilla FC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Espanyol (5–4)

Sevilla FC (6–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Espanyol

Sevilla FC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Espanyol

Sevilla FC

The teams in numbers

Performance	Espanyol	Sevilla FC
Points	3	6
xPoints	4.5	4.5
xG per match	1.3	1.4
xGA per match	1.6	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.31	0.56

Playing style	Espanyol	Sevilla FC
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.29
Field tilt	0.49	0.5
xT per match	0.65	0.79
xTA per match	0.91	0.74
Won balls, offensive half	20	30
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.12	0.21
Entries into the box per match	7	10
Entries into the box against	12	11
Pass completion %	0.77	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.66
Passes per match	334	245
Passes against per match	394	370
Switches of play per match	18.1	24.4
Long balls per match	23	29

Set pieces	Espanyol	Sevilla FC
xG from free kicks	0.15	0
Corners per match	1	2.6
Corners against per match	5.4	4.5
xG per corner	0.05	0
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.5

Other	Espanyol	Sevilla FC
Throw-in control	0.68	0.69

The goalkeepers	Marko Dmitrović (Espanyol)	Odysseas Vlachodimos (Sevilla FC)
Saves	13	10
Save %	77%	67%
xG prevented	63%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Espanyol vs Sevilla FC according to our model?

The model gives Espanyol a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Espanyol 39%, draw 33%, Sevilla FC 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.