01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Eibar to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Segunda División22°9 km/h
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Celta FortunaCounter-attacks & crossesvs
EibarPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Eibar (49%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.18 (+22 %)
Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.
Celta Fortuna – Eibar · Segunda División
1 · Celta Fortuna 24%X 27%49% Eibar · 2
24%
27%
49%
Analysis: Celta Fortuna – Eibar
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: SD Eibar holds a 49% win probability in this match against Celta Fortuna, tilting the scale decisively in their favor. Despite the hosts' flair for counter-attacks and crosses, the visitors' strength in possession and consistent scoring in their last 10 league games make them formidable opponents. The model's expected goals underscore Eibar's edge, predicting 1.80 against Celta's 1.12. This suggests that the visitors are more likely to capitalize on their attacking chances.
Digging deeper into the numbers, Eibar's defensive solidity stands out with an xGA of 0.69 compared to the home side's concerning 1.7. This defensive gap could prove critical, as it points to Eibar's ability to stifle Celta's attempts while maintaining their own attacking threat. The expected scorelines reflect this, with 1-1 (11%) the single most likely result, followed by 1-2 (10%) and 0-1 (9%) in Eibar's favor. At first glance, a goal-heavy game seems possible with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability of both teams scoring.
For bettors, the model's lean toward Eibar, supported by their superior form and metrics, makes backing Eibar a sharp angle, though as with any bet, risks remain.
Celta FortunaForm DWL
League ranking xG #16xGA #19xT #10xP/match #18Points #13
Key players
- Bernard Somuah SarpongFxG 0.30 · xT -0.03
- Ángel Arcos CadillaLWxG 0.14 · xT -0.01
- Andrés Antañón VieitesCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
EibarForm WLLWW
League ranking xG #14xGA #3xT #8xP/match #7Points #8
Key players
- Jon BautistaFxG 0.56 · xT -0.01
- Markel Arana MateoCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
- Ander MadariagaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: Celta Fortuna – Eibar
Predicted score matrix
Eibar →
Celta Fortuna →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–19.4%
0–28.7%
0–35.3%
0–4+3.6%
1
1–05.7%
1–111.2%
1–29.8%
1–35.9%
1–4+4.0%
2
2–03.4%
2–16.1%
2–25.5%
2–33.3%
2–4+2.2%
3
3–01.3%
3–12.3%
3–22.1%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.2-16%
Expected goals
1,12–1,80
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@1.68
Over 2,556%
@2.18EV+16%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Eibar to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Javier Martínez Calvo to score17%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Javier Martínez Calvo to score17%
- Marco Moreno Ojeda to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.556% probability@2.18PinnacleEV+22%reference odds
- Over 3.534% probability@3.55BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
- Over 3.534% probability@3.55BetssonEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Celta Fortuna | X | 2 · Eibar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.45 | 3.05 | EV+ 3% 2.10 |
| Betsson | 3.45 | 3.05 | EV+ 3% 2.10 |
| Nordicbet | 3.45 | 3.05 | EV+ 3% 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 3.66 | 2.94 | EV+ 11% 2.27 |
Odds updated 8 Sept, 05:16
Statistics
Key facts
- SD Eibar have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Celta Fortuna
Eibar
Celta Fortuna (5–4)
Eibar (3–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Celta Fortuna
Eibar
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Celta Fortuna
Eibar
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Celta Fortuna | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 6 |
| xPoints | 3 | 4.5 |
| xG per match | 0.84 | 0.87 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 0.69 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.38 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Celta Fortuna | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| xT per match | 0.73 | 0.85 |
| xTA per match | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 302 | 325 |
| Passes against per match | 446 | 455 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.9 | 26.1 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Celta Fortuna | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.3 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.69 | 0.5 |
| Other | Celta Fortuna | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Jorge Carrillo Balea (Celta Fortuna) | Jonmi Magunagoitia (Eibar) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 10 |
| Save % | 83% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 71% | 61% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Celta Fortuna vs Eibar according to our model?
The model gives Eibar a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celta Fortuna 24%, draw 27%, Eibar 49%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.