Swedish SuperettanRimnersvallen, Uddevalla14°1,2 mm12 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    OddevoldOddevoldCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Helsingborgs IFHelsingborgs IFPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Oddevold (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Helsingborgs IF @ 3.61 (+9 %)

    Oddevold – Helsingborgs IF · Swedish Superettan

    1 · Oddevold 44%X 26%30% Helsingborgs IF · 2

    Analysis: Oddevold – Helsingborgs IF

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Helsingborgs IF arrives at the matchup against Oddevold with a slight historical edge, having managed two wins in their last five encounters. However, this small head-to-head sample pales in significance when compared to the current season's underlying metrics. Oddevold edges ahead in several critical areas, including expected points (30.1 versus 20.6) and expected goals against per match (1.1 versus 1.6). These numbers suggest a more robust defensive unit, crucial in a contest where margins may be tight.

    The predicted probabilities favor the hosts, with Oddevold standing at 44% for a win compared to Helsingborgs' 30%. This is further echoed in the expected goals tally, which leans towards Oddevold at 1.74 to 1.34. Despite the historical narrative, the model's lean towards Oddevold is hard to ignore, especially with the Superettan's tight race where both teams are separated by just one point.

    Yet, there's an intriguing betting angle. The value lies with the visitors, priced at odds of 3.61 across multiple bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model assigns a 30% likelihood to a Helsingborgs victory, suggesting a 9% edge on the market odds. This presents a tempting opportunity for punters willing to back a historical trend against current form.

    As for game dynamics, expect Oddevold to exploit counter-attacks and crosses, contrasting with Helsingborgs' possession-based approach. This clash of styles could lead to an open game, aligned with the model's 59% chance of over 2.5 goals. A scoreline of 1-1 remains the most likely outcome at 11%, closely followed by a 2-1 win for the hosts at 9%. As both teams are likely to find the back of the net, the 61% chance for both sides scoring further compounds this expectation.

    Ultimately, while Oddevold holds the statistical edge, the betting value on Helsingborgs at those odds cannot be overlooked—a calculated risk for those betting on a reversal of recent form.

    OddevoldOddevold
    Form LDDWD
    League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #6xP/match #3Points #8
    Key players
    • Gustav ForssellFxG 0.22 · xT 0.07
    • Vincent SundbergRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.16
    • Leonardo Farah ShahinFxG 0.41 · xT 0.03
    Helsingborgs IFHelsingborgs IF
    Form WDLLD
    League ranking xG #11xGA #15xT #2xP/match #16Points #10
    Key players
    • Max SvenssonLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.50
    • Alexander JohanssonFxG 0.47 · xT 0.05
    • Kevin Appiah NyarkoFxG 0.36 · xT 0.01

    Match prediction: Oddevold – Helsingborgs IF

    Predicted score matrix

    Helsingborgs IF →
    Oddevold →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.9%
    0–15.8%
    0–24.1%
    0–31.8%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–07.7%
    1–111.0%
    1–27.2%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.4%
    2
    2–07.0%
    2–19.3%
    2–26.2%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.3%
    3
    3–04.0%
    3–15.4%
    3–23.6%
    3–31.6%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–02.6%
    4+–13.5%
    4+–22.3%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-08%
    4. 4.1-27%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,74–1,34
    Both teams to score
    61%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,541%
    @2.08
    Over 2,559%
    @1.70EV+1%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Oddevold or draw (1X)71%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.72

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Oddevold or draw (1X)71%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Leonardo Farah Shahin to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score61%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Leonardo Farah Shahin to score26%
    • Daouda Amadou to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Helsingborgs IF30% probability@3.61BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    • 2 · Helsingborgs IF30% probability@3.61BetssonEV+9%reference odds
    • 2 · Helsingborgs IF30% probability@3.61NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · OddevoldX2 · Helsingborgs IF
    Betsafe1.973.59
    EV+ 9%
    3.61
    Betsson1.973.59
    EV+ 9%
    3.61
    Nordicbet1.973.59
    EV+ 9%
    3.61

    Odds updated 16 Aug, 12:36

    Odds movement

    1+6 %
    52 %47 %

    1.86 → 1.97

    X-4 %
    28 %23 %

    3.73 → 3.59

    2-7 %
    28 %23 %

    3.90 → 3.61

    Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 16/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Oddevold 1Draw 2Helsingborgs IF 2
    Goals: 5–9 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • Helsingborgs IF dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Oddevold
    Helsingborgs IF
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Oddevold (30–27)
    Helsingborgs IF (32–37)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Oddevold
    Jesper Merbom Adolfsson: 225 passningar, xT 2.25AdolfssonJohan Albin: 200 passningar, xT 0.31AlbinGabriel Sandberg: 170 passningar, xT 0.25SandbergEsim Mehmed: 159 passningar, xT 1.58MehmedElias Forsberg: 98 passningar, xT 0.16ForsbergAwaka Franck Aurelien Djoro: 85 passningar, xT 0.38DjoroHugo Engström: 85 passningar, xT 0.18EngströmMorten Sætra: 83 passningar, xT 0.52SætraOscar Iglicar Berntsson: 66 passningar, xT 0.13BerntssonLeonardo Farah Shahin: 65 passningar, xT -0.26ShahinErik Hedenquist: 54 passningar, xT 0.08Hedenquist
    Helsingborgs IF
    Lukas Kjellnäs: 310 passningar, xT 0.66KjellnäsSimon Bengtsson: 239 passningar, xT 0.67BengtssonObafemi Awodesu: 209 passningar, xT 0.12AwodesuLoret Sadiku: 209 passningar, xT 0.22SadikuClancy Valere Biten: 189 passningar, xT 0.84BitenErvin Gigovic: 159 passningar, xT 0.35GigovicDaouda Amadou: 152 passningar, xT 0.27AmadouJakob Voelkerling Persson: 140 passningar, xT 0.23PerssonDemba N'Diaye: 125 passningar, xT 0.18N'DiayeLino Wernberg Hyppänen: 109 passningar, xT 0.24HyppänenJulian Larsson: 104 passningar, xT 0.42Larsson
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Oddevold
    Jesper Merbom Adolfsson: 225 passningar, xT 2.25AdolfssonJohan Albin: 200 passningar, xT 0.31AlbinGabriel Sandberg: 170 passningar, xT 0.25SandbergEsim Mehmed: 159 passningar, xT 1.58MehmedElias Forsberg: 98 passningar, xT 0.16ForsbergAwaka Franck Aurelien Djoro: 85 passningar, xT 0.38DjoroHugo Engström: 85 passningar, xT 0.18EngströmMorten Sætra: 83 passningar, xT 0.52SætraOscar Iglicar Berntsson: 66 passningar, xT 0.13BerntssonLeonardo Farah Shahin: 65 passningar, xT -0.26ShahinErik Hedenquist: 54 passningar, xT 0.08Hedenquist
    Helsingborgs IF
    Lukas Kjellnäs: 310 passningar, xT 0.66KjellnäsSimon Bengtsson: 239 passningar, xT 0.67BengtssonObafemi Awodesu: 209 passningar, xT 0.12AwodesuLoret Sadiku: 209 passningar, xT 0.22SadikuClancy Valere Biten: 189 passningar, xT 0.84BitenErvin Gigovic: 159 passningar, xT 0.35GigovicDaouda Amadou: 152 passningar, xT 0.27AmadouJakob Voelkerling Persson: 140 passningar, xT 0.23PerssonDemba N'Diaye: 125 passningar, xT 0.18N'DiayeLino Wernberg Hyppänen: 109 passningar, xT 0.24HyppänenJulian Larsson: 104 passningar, xT 0.42Larsson

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceOddevoldHelsingborgs IF
    Points2625
    xPoints30.120.6
    xG per match1.41.3
    xGA per match1.11.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.260.31
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.25
    Playing styleOddevoldHelsingborgs IF
    Build-up efficiency0.370.33
    Field tilt0.470.55
    xT per match1.61.7
    xTA per match1.31.5
    Won balls, offensive half4134
    Pressing intensity0.550.55
    Pressing efficiency0.270.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.29
    Entries into the box per match1515
    Entries into the box against1413
    Pass completion %0.750.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.74
    Passes per match333424
    Passes against per match431333
    Switches of play per match16.913.5
    Long balls per match2927
    Set piecesOddevoldHelsingborgs IF
    xG from free kicks0.140.09
    Corners per match5.55.4
    Corners against per match4.14.6
    xG per corner0.030.04
    xGA per corner against0.030.06
    First touch, offensive corners %0.30.37
    First touch, defensive corners %0.550.49
    OtherOddevoldHelsingborgs IF
    Throw-in control0.430.55
    The goalkeepersMorten Sætra (Oddevold)Johan Brattberg (Helsingborgs IF)
    Saves5272
    Save %68%68%
    xG prevented53%45%
    Claims115 (94%)135 (93%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Oddevold vs Helsingborgs IF according to our model?

    The model gives Oddevold a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oddevold 44%, draw 26%, Helsingborgs IF 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.