01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Ljungskile to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Swedish SuperettanSkarsjövallen, Uddevalla20°2,1 mm14 km/h
Läs på svenska
LjungskilePossession controlvs
ÖsterCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Ljungskile (51%)
Ljungskile – Öster · Swedish Superettan
1 · Ljungskile 51%X 25%24% Öster · 2
51%
25%
24%
Analysis: Ljungskile – Öster
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
Ljungskile SK, with a model probability of 51%, finds itself in a favorable position against Östers IF, who come in at just 24%. This tilt towards the home side is backed by the expected goals — Ljungskile SK sits at 1.94 compared to Östers IF’s 1.36. Despite being behind on points with 23 to Östers IF's 26, Ljungskile shows more efficiency with an xPoints advantage of 26.1 to 20.3, suggesting their play has been more productive than the standings might reflect.
With the most likely scorelines pointing towards a 1-1 or 2-1 result, the game seems poised for a close contest. However, the numbers suggest Ljungskile SK is more likely to come out on top, potentially with a 2-1 scoreline. They dominate the head-to-head records since 2024, albeit from a single match, which doesn't offer much weight but provides a psychological edge nevertheless.
Östers IF's preference for counter-attacks and crosses might struggle against Ljungskile SK's possession control tactics. With Ljungskile allowing just 1.3 xGA per match compared to Östers IF’s 1.7, the visitors might find it challenging to break down the home defense, while Ljungskile seems poised to exploit their chances more fully.
The weather isn't a factor here, so the model's outlook for a game exceeding 2.5 goals at 64% likely holds water. This suggests an entertaining match with plenty of attacking action, despite potential defensive resilience.
For those seeking an intriguing betting angle, the draw offers value at odds of 4.04 with Pinnacle. The model rates a draw at 25%, which aligns perfectly with the bookmaker's odds, giving punters a chance to back a result that might just defy the expected home advantage. Still, Ljungskile SK looks the stronger side, and they might just edge a victory in what promises to be a competitive encounter.
LjungskileForm WWWDL
League ranking xG #2xGA #8xT #7xP/match #6Points #11
Key players
- Issaka SeiduLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.20
- Isaac ShearsFxG 0.42 · xT 0.03
- Lukas Lindholm CornerFxG 0.23 · xT 0.01
ÖsterForm LWWLL
League ranking xG #13xGA #16xT #13xP/match #13Points #7
Key players
- Linus CarlstrandFxG 0.46 · xT -0.02
- Dennis OlssonLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.40
- Oscar UddenäsRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Ljungskile – Öster
Predicted score matrix
Öster →
Ljungskile →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.9%
0–14.7%
0–23.4%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–06.9%
1–110.0%
1–26.6%
1–33.0%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–06.9%
2–19.4%
2–26.4%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–04.5%
3–16.1%
3–24.2%
3–31.9%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–03.4%
4+–14.6%
4+–23.1%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+0.7%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.2-07%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,94–1,36
Both teams to score
64%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,536%
@2.48
Over 2,564%
@1.50
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Ljungskile to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Vilmer Tyrén to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score64%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Vilmer Tyrén to score24%
- Al-Hussein Shakir to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Ljungskile51% probability@1.97BetsafeEV+1%
- 1 · Ljungskile51% probability@1.97BetssonEV+1%
- 1 · Ljungskile51% probability@1.97NordicbetEV+1%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Ljungskile | X | 2 · Öster |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 1% 1.97 | 3.62 | 3.67 |
| Betsson | EV+ 1% 1.97 | 3.62 | 3.67 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 1.97 | 3.62 | 3.67 |
| Pinnacle | 1.90 | 3.28 | 4.21 |
Odds updated 12 Aug, 15:56
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 8 August — the odds have shortened from 4.09 to 3.28 (−20%).
1+4 %
55 %45 %
1.83 → 1.90
X-20 %
31 %21 %
4.09 → 3.28
2+17 %
29 %19 %
3.61 → 4.21
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 08/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesLjungskile 1Draw 0Öster 0
Goals: 4–1 (⌀ 5)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Ljungskile
Öster
Ljungskile (25–24)
Öster (27–27)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Ljungskile
Öster
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Ljungskile
Öster
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Ljungskile | Öster |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 23 | 26 |
| xPoints | 26.1 | 20.3 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Ljungskile | Öster |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 338 | 386 |
| Passes against per match | 326 | 361 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.8 | 13.1 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Ljungskile | Öster |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.2 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| Other | Ljungskile | Öster |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| The goalkeepers | Lukas Eriksson (Ljungskile) | Carl Lundahl Persson (Öster) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 58 | 78 |
| Save % | 72% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 56% |
| Claims | 103 (94%) | 92 (86%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Ljungskile vs Öster according to our model?
The model gives Ljungskile a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ljungskile 51%, draw 25%, Öster 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.