01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Östersund to win52%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Swedish SuperettanJämtkraft Arena, Östersund12°17 km/h
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ÖstersundPossession & high pressvs
LjungskilePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Östersund (52%)
Östersund – Ljungskile · Swedish Superettan
1 · Östersund 52%X 25%23% Ljungskile · 2
52%
25%
23%
Analysis: Östersund – Ljungskile
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Östersunds FK have been riding a wave of resilience, remaining unbeaten in their last five league outings. This uptick in form makes them the bookmakers' favourites at 52% to take the win against Ljungskile SK, who have been struggling to find their feet this season. With the odds reflecting this, the most probable scorelines like a 1-1 draw or a 2-1 victory for Östersunds FK illustrate a close contest but with a tilt towards the home side.
Despite a small head-to-head sample size of just one 1-1 draw since 2024, it's the current form and expected goals that paint a clearer picture for this clash. Östersunds FK's expected goals (1.73) significantly outshine Ljungskile SK's 1.19, reinforcing the belief that they might edge this encounter. Their high-pressing style could unsettle Ljungskile's possession-based approach, especially in the likely absence of adverse weather.
Ljungskile SK, despite their lower points tally of 23 compared to Östersunds' 32, hold a slight advantage in expected points and goals per match. Their ability to generate an xG of 1.6 per match suggests they can pose a threat, although they’ll need to convert those chances more efficiently to turn the tide.
Östersunds FK should capitalise on their momentum, but with both teams scoring in 58% of simulations and an over 2.5 goals likelihood of 56%, expect an open game. The defensive edge of Östersunds FK, with a lower xGA of 1.2, could prove vital in stifling Ljungskile's advances.
The sharp angle here is leaning towards a narrow victory for Östersunds FK. A 2-1 scoreline seems plausible, fitting both the expected goals narrative and the over 2.5 goals propensity. With Östersunds FK favoured, punters might find value in backing them at competitive odds.
ÖstersundForm WDWWD
League ranking xG #12xGA #3xT #4xP/match #12Points #4
Key players
- Simon MarklundRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.22
- Daniel MiljanovicRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.22
- Assiedou Yannick Armel AdjoumaniLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.21
LjungskileForm WWDLL
League ranking xG #2xGA #10xT #3xP/match #7Points #11
Key players
- Issaka SeiduLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.20
- Isaac ShearsFxG 0.42 · xT 0.03
- Lukas Lindholm CornerFxG 0.23 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Östersund – Ljungskile
Predicted score matrix
Ljungskile →
Östersund →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–16.1%
0–23.8%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–09.0%
1–111.4%
1–26.6%
1–32.6%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–08.1%
2–19.6%
2–25.7%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.7%
3–15.5%
3–23.3%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.0%
4+–13.5%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,73–1,19
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.02
Over 2,556%
@1.72
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Östersund to win52%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Jabir Abdihakim Ali to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Jabir Abdihakim Ali to score25%
- Filip Ambroz to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Östersund52% probability@2.04BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Östersund52% probability@2.04BetssonEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Östersund52% probability@2.04NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Östersund | X | 2 · Ljungskile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 6% 2.04 | 3.49 | 3.50 |
| Betsson | EV+ 6% 2.04 | 3.49 | 3.50 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 6% 2.04 | 3.49 | 3.50 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 14:36
Odds movement
1-5 %
48 %43 %
2.14 → 2.04
X-1 %
29 %24 %
3.53 → 3.49
2+9 %
31 %26 %
3.20 → 3.50
Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesÖstersund 0Draw 1Ljungskile 0
Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Key facts
- Östersund are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Östersund
Ljungskile
Östersund (29–22)
Ljungskile (27–27)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Östersund
Ljungskile
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Östersund
Ljungskile
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Östersund | Ljungskile |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 33 | 23 |
| xPoints | 25.1 | 27 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Östersund | Ljungskile |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 36 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 437 | 341 |
| Passes against per match | 339 | 324 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.3 | 18.7 |
| Long balls per match | 41 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Östersund | Ljungskile |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.18 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 3.6 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| Other | Östersund | Ljungskile |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| The goalkeepers | Melker Uppenberg (Östersund) | Lukas Eriksson (Ljungskile) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 30 | 63 |
| Save % | 64% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 31% | 55% |
| Claims | 77 (90%) | 111 (94%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Östersund vs Ljungskile according to our model?
The model gives Östersund a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Östersund 52%, draw 25%, Ljungskile 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.