Apollon vs Brann: Prediction & Odds (11 Aug 2026)

Conference League11 August 2026

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Apollon

The model's lean: 1 · Apollon (45%)

Brann

1 · Apollon 45%X 26%29% Brann · 2

45%

26%

29%

Analysis: Apollon – Brann

Erik Lindberg · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Apollon's home advantage shines through in numbers that suggest a likely edge against Brann. A probability of 45% in favor of the home team, combined with expected goals of 1.91, hints at Apollon's attacking edge. Despite only a slender lead in the odds over Brann's 29%, it's enough to suggest that Apollon should be considered the frontrunners in this clash.

Brann have their work cut out for them, with an expected goals tally trailing at 1.10. Their chances aren't bolstered by the most likely scorelines either, with a 2-1 to Apollon at 10% and a 1-0 also in Apollon's favor at 9%. The model's lean towards Apollon is not just statistical; it's a reflection of current form and home turf advantage. The 1-1 draw at 11% is the most probable scenario overall, highlighting Brann's potential to make things tough, yet it doesn't overshadow the home side's edge.

Apollon enters with momentum, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 58% suggests an open game. If Brann can exploit any defensive lapses, the 57% chance of both teams scoring could come into play, yet the weather remains a non-factor. This potential for goals aligns with Apollon’s attacking stats, while Brann’s scoring potential can't be entirely dismissed despite their lesser offense.

If you're looking for value, Apollon at EV+ with a bookmaker offering odds reflective of their 45% win probability could be your angle. An outright Apollon win seems plausible, given the expected goal disparity and win probability. A 2-1 scoreline feels like the best reflection of the data, and with the over 2.5 leaning favorably, goals could well be on the menu.

Apollon

Brann

Form LWDD

Key players

Felix MyhreCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.17
Bård FinneFxG 0.24 · xT 0.07
Sivert NilsenCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Apollon – Brann

Predicted score matrix

Brann →

Apollon →

0–05.2%

0–15.1%

0–23.0%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.4%

1–09.1%

1–110.6%

1–25.7%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.0%

2–19.9%

2–25.5%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–05.7%

3–16.3%

3–23.5%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.2%

4+–14.6%

4+–22.6%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-09%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,91–1,10

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

–

Over 2,558%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Apollon to win45%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Apollon to win45%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Pedro David Rosendo Marques to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Niklas Fernando Nygård Castro to score27%
Andrei Artean to be booked24%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

When goals are scored and conceded — 2023

Brann (8–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brann

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brann

The goalkeepers	Apollon	Mathias Dyngeland (Brann)
Saves	–	20
Save %	–	74%
xG prevented	–	58%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Apollon vs Brann according to our model?

The model gives Apollon a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Apollon 45%, draw 26%, Brann 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.