Dukagjini vs Lugano: Prediction & Odds (29 Jul 2026)

Conference League29 July 2026

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Dukagjini

1–5

The model's lean: 2 · Lugano (69%)

Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.82 (+14 %)

Lugano

1 · Dukagjini 14%X 17%69% Lugano · 2

14%

17%

69%

Final score

1 – 5

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Dukagjini 14% · Draw 17% · Lugano 69%

Match prediction: Dukagjini – Lugano

Predicted score matrix

Lugano →

Dukagjini →

0–04.2%

0–18.3%

0–29.3%

0–36.7%

0–4+5.9%

1–04.0%

1–19.4%

1–29.9%

1–37.1%

1–4+6.3%

2–02.3%

2–14.9%

2–25.3%

2–33.8%

2–4+3.4%

3–00.8%

3–11.7%

3–21.9%

3–31.3%

3–4+1.2%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-210%
2.1-19%
3.0-29%
4.0-18%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,06–2,16

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@1.97

Over 2,562%

@1.82EV+14%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lugano to win69%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Lugano to win69%
Over 2.5 goals62%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals62%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.562% probability@1.82PinnacleEV+14%
2 · Lugano69% probability@1.60PinnacleEV+11%

Bookmaker	1 · Dukagjini	X	2 · Lugano
Pinnacle	4.71	3.91	EV+ 11% 1.60

Odds updated 29 Jul, 10:08

Odds movement

1-5 %

22 %17 %

4.96 → 4.71

X-2 %

26 %21 %

3.97 → 3.91

2+2 %

60 %55 %

1.56 → 1.60

Over 2,5-6 %

53 %48 %

1.93 → 1.82

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 29/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Dukagjini vs Lugano according to our model?

The model gives Lugano a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dukagjini 14%, draw 17%, Lugano 69%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.