Riga FC vs Vardar: Prediction & Odds (28 Jul 2026)

Conference League28 July 202618°4,4 mm19 km/h

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Riga FC

The model's lean: 1 · Riga FC (75%)

Vardar

1 · Riga FC 75%X 13%12% Vardar · 2

75%

13%

Match prediction: Riga FC – Vardar

Predicted score matrix

Vardar →

Riga FC →

0–03.9%

0–13.2%

0–21.6%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–08.6%

1–18.3%

1–23.7%

1–31.1%

1–4+0.3%

2–010.5%

2–19.6%

2–24.4%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–08.3%

3–17.6%

3–23.5%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–08.7%

4+–17.9%

4+–23.6%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.3-08%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,38–0,92

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

–

Over 2,564%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Riga FC to win75%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Riga FC to win75%
Over 2.5 goals64%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals64%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Riga FC	X	2 · Vardar
Pinnacle	1.28	5.33	8.43

Odds updated 28 Jul, 10:08

Odds movement

1-3 %

74 %69 %

1.31 → 1.28

X+8 %

20 %15 %

4.95 → 5.33

2+8 %

13 %8 %

7.84 → 8.43

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 28/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Riga FC vs Vardar according to our model?

The model gives Riga FC a 75% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Riga FC 75%, draw 13%, Vardar 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.