Rapid Wien vs Santa Coloma: Prediction & Odds (29 Jul 2026)

Conference League29 July 202627°18 km/h

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Rapid Wien

6–2

The model's lean: 1 · Rapid Wien (59%)

Best value by the model: 2 · Santa Coloma @ 18.21 (+226 %)

Santa Coloma

1 · Rapid Wien 59%X 23%18% Santa Coloma · 2

59%

23%

18%

Final score

6 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Rapid Wien 59% · Draw 23% · Santa Coloma 18%

Match prediction: Rapid Wien – Santa Coloma

Predicted score matrix

Santa Coloma →

Rapid Wien →

0–08.0%

0–16.2%

0–22.8%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–012.8%

1–111.5%

1–24.8%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.4%

2–011.3%

2–19.6%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.4%

3–15.5%

3–22.3%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–04.1%

4+–13.5%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,71–0,85

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

–

Over 2,547%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rapid Wien to win59%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Rapid Wien to win59%
Under 2.5 goals53%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals47%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Santa Coloma18% probability@18.21PinnacleEV+226%
X · Draw23% probability@10.71PinnacleEV+146%
Under 3.574% probability@1.95PinnacleEV+45%

Bookmaker	1 · Rapid Wien	X	2 · Santa Coloma
Pinnacle	1.07	EV+ 146% 10.71	EV+ 226% 18.21

Odds updated 29 Jul, 10:08

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Rapid Wien win since 27 July — the odds have shortened from 1.13 to 1.07 (−5%).

1-5 %

89 %79 %

1.13 → 1.07

X+29 %

15 %5 %

8.29 → 10.71

2+48 %

11 %1 %

12.34 → 18.21

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 29/07/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rapid Wien vs Santa Coloma according to our model?

The model gives Rapid Wien a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rapid Wien 59%, draw 23%, Santa Coloma 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.