Conference League22°10 km/h

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    Austria WienAustria Wien
    3–1
    The model's lean: 1 · Austria Wien (55%)
    Best value by the model: 2 · Liepaja @ 11.46 (+143 %)
    LiepajaLiepaja

    Austria Wien – Liepaja · Conference League

    1 · Austria Wien 55%X 24%21% Liepaja · 2
    Final score
    3 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Austria Wien 55% · Draw 24% · Liepaja 21%

    Match prediction: Austria Wien – Liepaja

    Predicted score matrix

    Liepaja →
    Austria Wien →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.0%
    0–16.1%
    0–23.0%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–011.4%
    1–111.5%
    1–25.3%
    1–31.7%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.3%
    2–19.8%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–06.0%
    3–15.7%
    3–22.7%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–03.9%
    4+–13.7%
    4+–21.8%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,75–0,95
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    –
    Over 2,551%
    –

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Austria Wien to win55%
    • Over 1.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    45%

    Fair odds

    2.25

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Austria Wien to win55%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.92

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.53

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Liepaja21% probability@11.46PinnacleEV+143%
    • X · Draw24% probability@6.44PinnacleEV+54%
    • Under 3.571% probability@1.67PinnacleEV+19%
    Bookmaker1 · Austria WienX2 · Liepaja
    Pinnacle1.18
    EV+ 54%
    6.44
    EV+ 143%
    11.46

    Odds updated 28 Jul, 04:50

    Odds movement

    10 %
    80 %75 %

    1.17 → 1.18

    X-2 %
    17 %12 %

    6.54 → 6.44

    2-1 %
    10 %5 %

    11.63 → 11.46

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 28/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Austria Wien vs Liepaja according to our model?

    The model gives Austria Wien a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Austria Wien 55%, draw 24%, Liepaja 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.