Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca: Prediction & Odds (30 Jul 2026)

Conference League30 July 202628°28 km/h

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Beitar Jerusalem

The model's lean: 1 · Beitar Jerusalem (58%)

AEK Larnaca

1 · Beitar Jerusalem 58%X 23%18% AEK Larnaca · 2

58%

23%

18%

Match prediction: Beitar Jerusalem – AEK Larnaca

Predicted score matrix

AEK Larnaca →

Beitar Jerusalem →

0–08.1%

0–16.3%

0–22.9%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–012.9%

1–111.6%

1–24.9%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.4%

2–011.2%

2–19.6%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.3%

3–15.4%

3–22.3%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.9%

4+–13.4%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,70–0,86

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.75

Over 2,547%

@2.04

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Beitar Jerusalem to win58%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Beitar Jerusalem to win58%
Under 2.5 goals53%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals47%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Beitar Jerusalem58% probability@2.19PinnacleEV+28%

Bookmaker	1 · Beitar Jerusalem	X	2 · AEK Larnaca
Pinnacle	EV+ 28% 2.19	3.23	3.13

Odds updated 30 Jul, 00:08

Odds movement

10 %

44 %39 %

2.19 → 2.19

X+1 %

31 %26 %

3.19 → 3.23

2+1 %

32 %27 %

3.10 → 3.13

Over 2,50 %

48 %43 %

2.05 → 2.04

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 30/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca according to our model?

The model gives Beitar Jerusalem a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Beitar Jerusalem 58%, draw 23%, AEK Larnaca 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.