Beitar Jerusalem vs Austria Wien: Prediction & Odds (6 Aug 2026)

Conference League6 August 202624°33 km/h

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Beitar Jerusalem

The model's lean: 1 · Beitar Jerusalem (52%)

Austria WienCounter-attacks & crosses

1 · Beitar Jerusalem 52%X 26%22% Austria Wien · 2

52%

26%

22%

Analysis: Beitar Jerusalem – Austria Wien

Erik Lindberg · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Fifty-two percent. That's the magic number the model gives to Beitar Jerusalem F.C. to win against Austria Vienna in this Conference League clash. It's a figure that paints a clear picture: the Israeli side has the edge, and with a noticeable 23% value edge on the home win at odds of 2.36 with Pinnacle, it's hard to ignore this as the sharpest angle for bettors. The numbers tell us a story of optimism for Beitar, but not without its caveats.

Beitar Jerusalem F.C. have the edge on expected goals, standing at 1.63 compared to Austria Vienna's 1.06. The hosts are poised to dominate in this matchup, particularly on home turf where their likelihood of taking all three points is strong. The most probable scoreline of 1-1 suggests a potential for a tightly contested affair, but with a 1-0 home win nipping closely at 11%, the scales tip slightly in Beitar's favor.

Austria Vienna's recent form hints at resilience; they've found the net in eight consecutive league matches. This consistent scoring run adds a layer of intrigue, pushing the probability of both teams scoring to a slightly favorable 53%. Yet, the slender chance of a 2-1 victory for Beitar remains a tantalizing prospect for those eyeing exact scores.

With over 2.5 goals at a straight 50% probability and priced at 1.99 with Pinnacle, the numbers don't scream value. The odds suggest a balanced outlook on the goal tally — neither high-scoring nor a defensive grind is distinctly favored. However, the presence of strong winds or heavy rain, if forecasted, could easily tilt this balance, potentially suppressing the goal count.

Here's the sharp take: with the model's strong lean towards Beitar Jerusalem F.C. and the attractive value presented by Pinnacle's odds, backing the home side seems the most compelling play. The numbers support the bet, and at 2.36, it's a favorable shot worth taking.

Beitar Jerusalem

Austria Wien

Form WLDWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #7xP/match #8Points #4

Key players

Manfred FischerFxG 0.30 · xT 0.15
Matteo SchablasLWBxG 0.31 · xT -0.05
Philipp MaybachCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: Beitar Jerusalem – Austria Wien

Predicted score matrix

Austria Wien →

Beitar Jerusalem →

0–07.1%

0–16.9%

0–23.8%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.7%

1–112.1%

1–26.2%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.0%

2–19.6%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.9%

3–15.2%

3–22.8%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.9%

4+–13.0%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,63–1,06

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,550%

@1.90

Over 2,550%

@1.99EV+0%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Beitar Jerusalem to win52%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Beitar Jerusalem to win52%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Yarden Shua to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Yarden Shua to score26%
Jonas Feddersen to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Beitar Jerusalem52% probability@2.36PinnacleEV+23%
1 · Beitar Jerusalem52% probability@2.22Betfair ExchangeEV+15%
Over 2.550% probability@1.99PinnacleEV+0%

Bookmaker	1 · Beitar Jerusalem	X	2 · Austria Wien
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 15% 2.22	1.58	3.55
Pinnacle	EV+ 23% 2.36	3.21	2.78

Odds updated 4 Aug, 20:09

Odds movement

1+2 %

42 %37 %

2.32 → 2.36

X+1 %

31 %26 %

3.17 → 3.21

2-1 %

35 %30 %

2.81 → 2.78

Over 2,5+1 %

50 %45 %

1.98 → 1.99

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 03/08/2026 → 04/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Austria Vienna have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Austria Wien

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Austria Wien (5–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Austria Wien

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Austria Wien

The goalkeepers	Beitar Jerusalem	Samuel Sahin Radlinger (Austria Wien)
Saves	–	5
Save %	–	83%
xG prevented	–	59%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Beitar Jerusalem vs Austria Wien according to our model?

The model gives Beitar Jerusalem a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Beitar Jerusalem 52%, draw 26%, Austria Wien 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.