Bohemians vs Midtjylland: Prediction & Odds (6 Aug 2026)

Conference League6 August 202616°0,3 mm19 km/h

Läs på svenska

Bohemians

The model's lean: 2 · Midtjylland (50%)

Best value by the model: 1 · Bohemians @ 8.50 (+127 %)

Midtjylland

1 · Bohemians 27%X 24%50% Midtjylland · 2

27%

24%

50%

Analysis: Bohemians – Midtjylland

Anna Karlsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

50% — that's the chance Midtjylland are given to take the win against Bohemian Football Club in the Conference League. Despite the modest likelihood of a draw at 24%, the Danish side is the clear favorite, supported by a superior expected goals tally of 1.67 compared to Bohemian's 1.28. On paper, this clash leans heavily towards Midtjylland, but the unpredictability of football always leaves room for surprises.

Bohemian Football Club enters the fray with value on their side. Paddy Power offers odds of 8.5 for a home win, a staggering 127% edge against the model's assessment. For those willing to gamble on an upset, this might be the ticket. Despite the home advantage and enticing odds, it's crucial not to overlook Midtjylland's strength and the 57% chance for over 2.5 goals, suggesting a potentially high-scoring match.

Midtjylland's recent form gives them an edge, driving the narrative towards a likely 1-2 scoreline (9%), with a 1-1 draw (11%) also in the running. Yet, with a small head-to-head sample, one can argue that the weight of this data is less significant than the teams' current form and expected outcomes. A goal-filled contest could unfold, given the 59% probability for both teams to score.

Midtjylland takes center stage in this encounter, but the 28% edge on a draw at odds of 5.4 with Betfair Exchange cannot be ignored. This suggests that while a win for the visitors is the more probable outcome, the potential for a stalemate lingers in the air.

In the end, the sharpest angle lies in the underdog. Bohemian Football Club at those value odds might just be worth a speculative punt, especially for punters keen on capitalizing on a potential market inefficiency. While Midtjylland has the upper hand, betting against the odds might just offer the most rewarding route.

Bohemians

Midtjylland

Form LLWDD

Key players

Kristoffer OlssonCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.48
PaulinhoLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.37
Oliver SørensenCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.25

Match prediction: Bohemians – Midtjylland

Predicted score matrix

Midtjylland →

Bohemians →

0–05.5%

0–18.4%

0–27.3%

0–34.1%

0–4+2.5%

1–06.4%

1–111.5%

1–29.4%

1–35.2%

1–4+3.2%

2–04.3%

2–17.1%

2–26.0%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.0%

3–01.8%

3–13.0%

3–22.5%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.0-27%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,28–1,67

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.34EV+2%

Over 2,557%

@1.64

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Midtjylland to win50%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Midtjylland to win50%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Cho Gue-Sung to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Cho Gue-Sung to score28%
Niall Morahan to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Bohemians27% probability@8.50Paddy PowerEV+127%
1 · Bohemians27% probability@7.23PinnacleEV+93%
X · Draw24% probability@5.40Betfair ExchangeEV+28%

Bookmaker	1 · Bohemians	X	2 · Midtjylland
Betfair Exchange	3.35	EV+ 28% 5.40	1.34
Paddy Power	EV+ 127% 8.50	EV+ 19% 5.00	1.25
Pinnacle	EV+ 93% 7.23	EV+ 26% 5.32	1.30

Odds updated 4 Aug, 22:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Midtjylland win since 3 August — the odds have shortened from 1.43 to 1.30 (−9%).

1+19 %

19 %9 %

6.06 → 7.23

X+22 %

24 %14 %

4.35 → 5.32

2-9 %

72 %62 %

1.43 → 1.30

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 03/08/2026 → 04/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

When goals are scored and conceded — 2023

Midtjylland (12–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Midtjylland

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Midtjylland

The goalkeepers	Bohemians	Jonas Lössl (Midtjylland)
Saves	–	11
Save %	–	58%
xG prevented	–	55%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bohemians vs Midtjylland according to our model?

The model gives Midtjylland a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bohemians 27%, draw 24%, Midtjylland 50%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.