CFR Cluj vs Tromsø: Prediction & Odds (6 Aug 2026)

Conference League6 August 202628°0,4 mm12 km/h

Läs på svenska

CFR ClujLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · CFR Cluj (49%)

Tromsø

1 · CFR Cluj 49%X 25%27% Tromsø · 2

49%

25%

27%

Analysis: CFR Cluj – Tromsø

Oscar Nilsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

49% is the magic number as CFR Cluj prepare to host Tromso in the Conference League. With a nearly 50-50 chance in their favour, Cluj have both the bookmakers and the model tipping their scales. The odds from Paddy Power, Betfair Exchange, and Pinnacle offer intriguing value for Cluj backers, especially given the model's 49% probability. A healthy edge is there for the taking, with a 37% edge from Paddy Power making it the standout pick.

Tromso, despite their respectable 27% probability, appear to have a hill to climb. The model indicates that Tromso's expected goals sit at a modest 1.01, suggesting a tough night ahead against a Cluj side that's recently been tighter at home. Weather isn't a factor here, so we should see the match play out as the numbers suggest — a rather disciplined affair with Cluj's 1.48 expected goals edging the narrative.

The most likely scorelines tell a tale of a closely contested battle: 1-1 leads the pack at 13%, followed by a narrow 1-0 victory for Cluj at 12%. This paints a picture of a game that will likely feature cautious play, with the under 2.5 goals side of the market being particularly enticing at 55%. The temperate betting climate of Cluj usually leans towards a lower-scoring affair, which aligns snugly with the statistics at hand.

CFR Cluj, emboldened by home odds of 2.8 on Paddy Power, seems poised to take control of their destiny. While the betting market presents opportunities, it's the numbers that crystallize the narrative: a narrow Cluj victory looms large. As Tromso travel to Cluj, the smart money is on a cagey 1-0 win for the home side, with Paddy Power's odds offering a lucrative avenue for those looking to back Cluj's advantageous position.

CFR Cluj

Form L

League ranking xG #69xGA #76xT #28xP/match #77Points #70

Tromsø

Match prediction: CFR Cluj – Tromsø

Predicted score matrix

Tromsø →

CFR Cluj →

0–08.6%

0–18.0%

0–24.3%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.9%

1–112.7%

1–26.3%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.0%

2–19.2%

2–24.7%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.5%

3–14.5%

3–22.3%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.3%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,48–1,01

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.79

Over 2,545%

@2.10

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

CFR Cluj to win49%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

CFR Cluj to win49%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Stefan Dražić to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Stefan Dražić to score36%
David Mikael Edvardsson to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · CFR Cluj49% probability@2.80Paddy PowerEV+37%
1 · CFR Cluj49% probability@2.58Betfair ExchangeEV+26%
1 · CFR Cluj49% probability@2.54PinnacleEV+24%

Bookmaker	1 · CFR Cluj	X	2 · Tromsø
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 26% 2.58	3.25	2.54
Paddy Power	EV+ 37% 2.80	3.10	2.40
Pinnacle	EV+ 24% 2.54	3.25	2.50

Odds updated 4 Aug, 20:09

Odds movement

1+6 %

38 %33 %

2.39 → 2.54

X+2 %

30 %25 %

3.19 → 3.25

2-3 %

39 %34 %

2.57 → 2.50

Over 2,5+2 %

49 %44 %

1.97 → 2.00

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 03/08/2026 → 04/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

CFR Cluj

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

CFR Cluj (2–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

CFR Cluj

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

CFR Cluj

The goalkeepers	Ottó Hindrich (CFR Cluj)	Tromsø
Saves	2	–
Save %	22%	–
xG prevented	7%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins CFR Cluj vs Tromsø according to our model?

The model gives CFR Cluj a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CFR Cluj 49%, draw 25%, Tromsø 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.