01 · 2 legs
Safe
- FC København to win58%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Conference League33°2,6 mm24 km/h
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DebrecenPossession & high pressvs
The model's lean: 2 · FC København (58%)
Best value by the model: Yes @ 1.80 (+4 %)
FC KøbenhavnCounter-attacks & crossesDebrecen – FC København · Conference League
1 · Debrecen 22%X 20%58% FC København · 2
22%
20%
58%
Analysis: Debrecen – FC København
Oscar Nilsson · · How the predictions work
58% chances sitting squarely on FC Copenhagen's side is a number that echoes their dominance in this matchup against Debrecen. Yet, the narrative isn't as cut and dried as those probabilities might suggest. While FC Copenhagen may look like the favourites, Debrecen holds an intriguing edge in expected metrics: superior xPoints, xG per match, and notably, a tighter defensive xGA. These numbers hint at a potential upset, despite the odds.
Debrecen, with their possession-based high press, might have an opportunity to control the rhythm against a counter-attacking FC Copenhagen. The blistering heat of 33.2°C, accompanied by a smattering of rain, could slow down the game, potentially favouring Debrecen's style. The weather conditions may suppress goals slightly, but not enough to dissuade the 57% over 2.5 goals probability.
FC Copenhagen's proclivity to hit on the break and whip in crosses makes them lethal against sides that push high. Yet Debrecen's defensive numbers suggest they can absorb pressure and strike efficiently within brief windows of opportunity. This dynamic hints that a 1-1 draw (11%) sits as the most likely scoreline, but a 1-2 in favour of the Danish side (10%) looms closely behind.
For the shrewd bettor, the value lies in the goals market. Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.8 with Bet365 appears with a 2% edge, aligning with the model's 57% probability. For those seeking more adventurous odds, over 3.5 at 3.0 with Bet365, even with a smaller edge, offers tantalising potential given the attacking metrics. In a clash between possession and counter, the betting angles lean towards goals aplenty.
DebrecenForm WLDL
League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #13xP/match #7Points #11
Key players
- Flórián CiblaLWxG 0.41 · xT 0.16
- Dominik KocsisRWxG 0.43 · xT 0.17
- Maximilian HofmannCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.08
FC KøbenhavnForm WLLDW
League ranking xG #14xGA #21xT #20xP/match #13Points #9
Key players
- Robert SilvaLWxG 0.52 · xT 0.05
- Mohamed ElyounoussiLWxG 0.38 · xT 0.10
- Youssoufa MoukokoFxG 0.21 · xT 0.17
Match prediction: Debrecen – FC København
Predicted score matrix
FC København →
Debrecen →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.5%
0–18.9%
0–28.2%
0–34.8%
0–4+3.2%
1
1–05.8%
1–111.2%
1–29.7%
1–35.7%
1–4+3.8%
2
2–03.6%
2–16.4%
2–25.7%
2–33.4%
2–4+2.3%
3
3–01.4%
3–12.5%
3–22.3%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.2-16%
Expected goals
1,19–1,78
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.00
Over 2,557%
@1.80EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- FC København to win58%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Youssoufa Mohamadu Moukoko to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Youssoufa Mohamadu Moukoko to score21%
- Hamzat Ojediran to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Both teams to score: Yes58% probability@1.80Bet365EV+4%
- Over 3.534% probability@3.00Bet365EV+3%
- Over 2.557% probability@1.80Bet365EV+2%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Debrecen | X | 2 · FC København |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.70 |
Odds updated 3 Aug, 15:53
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC København
FC København (5–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC København
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC København
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Debrecen | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPoints | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.12 | 0.28 |
| Playing style | Debrecen | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.23 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.64 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 297 | 298 |
| Passes against per match | 301 | 464 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.6 | 25.2 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Debrecen | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 6.8 | 2.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 7.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| Other | Debrecen | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.85 |
| The goalkeepers | Debrecen | Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson (FC København) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | – | 4 |
| Save % | – | 57% |
| xG prevented | – | 49% |
| Claims | – | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Debrecen vs FC København according to our model?
The model gives FC København a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Debrecen 22%, draw 20%, FC København 58%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.