Derry City vs Rijeka: Prediction & Odds (30 Jul 2026)

Conference League30 July 202614°1,8 mm18 km/h

Läs på svenska

Derry City

The model's lean: 2 · Rijeka (42%)

Best value by the model: 1 · Derry City @ 4.82 (+50 %)

Rijeka

1 · Derry City 31%X 27%42% Rijeka · 2

31%

27%

42%

Match prediction: Derry City – Rijeka

Predicted score matrix

Rijeka →

Derry City →

0–08.3%

0–110.4%

0–27.2%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.5%

1–09.1%

1–113.1%

1–28.5%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.6%

2–17.5%

2–25.1%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.2%

3–13.0%

3–22.0%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,18–1,34

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.85

Over 2,546%

@1.95

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Rijeka or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Rijeka or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals54%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals46%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Derry City31% probability@4.82PinnacleEV+50%

Bookmaker	1 · Derry City	X	2 · Rijeka
Pinnacle	EV+ 50% 4.82	3.64	1.66

Odds updated 29 Jul, 18:09

Odds movement

1+1 %

22 %17 %

4.76 → 4.82

X+1 %

28 %23 %

3.61 → 3.64

20 %

58 %53 %

1.65 → 1.66

Over 2,50 %

51 %46 %

1.94 → 1.95

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 29/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Derry City vs Rijeka according to our model?

The model gives Rijeka a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Derry City 31%, draw 27%, Rijeka 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.