Getafe vs Partizan Belgrade: Prediction & Odds (20 Aug 2026)

Conference League20 August 202626°20 km/h

Getafe

Partizan Belgrade

The model's lean: 1 · Getafe (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Partizan Belgrade @ 9.70 (+220 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Getafe 35%X 32%33% Partizan Belgrade · 2

35%

32%

33%

Analysis: Getafe – Partizan Belgrade

Oscar Nilsson · 18 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Getafe CF and FK Partizan Belgrade face off with a finely balanced model suggesting a narrow edge for the home side. With Getafe CF given a 35% chance of victory against Partizan's 33%, the match teeters on a knife-edge. The expected goals are nearly identical, with Getafe CF slightly ahead at 1.15 to Partizan's 1.04, pointing towards a tense and closely contested affair. Both sides have struggled to separate themselves from similar competition this season, and a draw at 32% probability feels like a plausible outcome.

Getafe CF should look to capitalize on their home advantage, even if historical head-to-head results offer only a small sample size that doesn't weigh heavily against current form. With the most likely scorelines being 1-1 (14%) and 1-0 (13%), it's clear that goals could be at a premium. The model's 37% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and only a 45% chance for both teams to score reinforce a cautious outlook on goal-scoring fireworks.

FK Partizan Belgrade might be arriving with a point to prove and an intriguing value proposition on their side. Offered at odds of 14.5 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a whopping 378% edge based on the model's evaluation, which rates their winning chances at 33%. Savvy bettors might find this too tempting to resist, as it highlights an opportunity to back the underdog for an unexpected victory.

In the end, a low-scoring draw like 1-1 seems a fitting reflection of the current numbers and form, but the betting landscape offers a tantalizing alternative. With Partizan's undervalued odds, those with a betting brain might just find their edge by backing the Serbian side.

Getafe

Partizan Belgrade

Match prediction: Getafe – Partizan Belgrade

Predicted score matrix

Partizan Belgrade →

Getafe →

0–011.6%

0–111.2%

0–26.0%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.7%

1–012.5%

1–113.8%

1–26.9%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–07.4%

2–17.7%

2–24.0%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–02.9%

3–13.0%

3–21.5%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-013%
3.0-012%
4.0-111%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,15–1,04

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

012%

124%

227%

320%

411%

5+7%

Under 2,563%

@1.70EV+6%

Over 2,537%

@2.02

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Getafe or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Getafe or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals63%
Martín Adrián Satriano Costa to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals37%
Martín Adrián Satriano Costa to score20%
Stefan Milic to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Partizan Belgrade33% probability@9.70BetsafeEV+220%reference odds
2 · Partizan Belgrade33% probability@9.70BetssonEV+220%reference odds
2 · Partizan Belgrade33% probability@9.70NordicbetEV+220%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Getafe	X	2 · Partizan Belgrade
Betsafe	1.33	EV+ 33% 4.15	EV+ 220% 9.70
Betsson	1.33	EV+ 33% 4.15	EV+ 220% 9.70
Nordicbet	1.33	EV+ 33% 4.15	EV+ 220% 9.70

Odds updated 19 Aug, 17:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 16 August — the odds have shortened from 1.88 to 1.70 (−10%).

1-4 %

75 %65 %

1.38 → 1.33

X+8 %

26 %16 %

3.85 → 4.15

2+10 %

13 %3 %

8.80 → 9.70

Over 2,5+11 %

53 %43 %

1.82 → 2.02

Betsson · 25 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Getafe vs Partizan Belgrade according to our model?

The model gives Getafe a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Getafe 35%, draw 32%, Partizan Belgrade 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.