01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Hibernian or draw (1X)63%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Conference League15°1,8 mm21 km/h
Läs på svenska
HibernianPossession controlvs
GentThe model's lean: 1 · Hibernian (37%)Soft draw
Hibernian – Gent · Conference League
1 · Hibernian 37%X 30%33% Gent · 2
37%
30%
33%
Analysis: Hibernian – Gent
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Hibernian and Gent have only met once in recent history, making their head-to-head record less reliable than the form and expected goals data for this matchup. Hibernian may have a slight edge with 37% compared to Gent's 33%, yet the razor-thin margins suggest an evenly matched contest. The model leans towards the hosts, albeit modestly, in what promises to be a tactical battle.
Both teams are evenly matched in expected goals, each projected to score 1.38. This parity indicates a closely fought contest with neither side having a clear upper hand. The most likely scoreline, a 1-1 draw, further reflects the tight nature of this matchup. With a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals, the market slightly favors a higher-scoring affair, but the numbers don't suggest a goal-heavy outcome.
Hibernian's modest edge according to the model isn't mirrored in the betting odds, where the market perhaps undervalues their home advantage. The suggested scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 indicate that the hosts could nick a narrow victory or hold Gent to a draw. Both teams scoring at 57% also aligns with the model's view of a balanced encounter, where minor details could tip the scales either way.
For those seeking value, Hibernian's odds might offer a tempting proposition. Given the model's lean and Hibernian's 37% probability, any odds above even money on the hosts could represent a positive expected value. It's not a guaranteed outcome, but within a framework where Gent is relatively overpriced, the home side holds the better betting angle. Keep an eye on the market dynamics, especially if Hibernian's odds drift beyond their model-implied probability.
HibernianForm LD
League ranking xG #8xGA #23xT #29xP/match #5Points #66
GentForm LWLLW
Key players
- Tsuyoshi WatanabeCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.09
- Omri GandelmanCAMxG 0.49 · xT -0.01
- Momodou Lamin SonkoLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Hibernian – Gent
Predicted score matrix
Gent →
Hibernian →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.6%
0–18.3%
0–26.0%
0–32.8%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–08.3%
1–112.4%
1–28.3%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.3%
2–25.8%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.8%
3–13.8%
3–22.7%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-18%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,38–1,38
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
–
Over 2,552%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Hibernian or draw (1X)63%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Adam Mayor to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Ibrahima Cisse to score23%
- Jason John Kerr to be booked18%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hibernian
Hibernian (4–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hibernian
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hibernian
| The goalkeepers | Jordan Clifford Smith (Hibernian) | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | – |
| Save % | 55% | – |
| xG prevented | 22% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hibernian vs Gent according to our model?
The model gives Hibernian a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hibernian 37%, draw 30%, Gent 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.