Hibernian vs Shkëndija: Prediction & Odds (6 Aug 2026)

Conference League6 August 202615°0,6 mm16 km/h

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HibernianPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Hibernian (49%)

Best value by the model: 2 · Shkëndija @ 6.60 (+37 %)

ShkëndijaLow block & direct

1 · Hibernian 49%X 31%21% Shkëndija · 2

49%

31%

21%

Analysis: Hibernian – Shkëndija

Erik Lindberg · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Three consecutive defeats have left Shkеndija reeling, but are the odds reflective of their true capabilities in this Conference League clash against Hibernian? A closer look at the data reveals a curious tension. Despite Hibernian's betting edge, Shkеndija's superior points and xPoints suggest they've been the more consistent team this season. However, Hibernian's stronger xG and xGA metrics indicate they're generating more quality chances and defending better, making them the more likely winners on the day.

Shkеndija's style of a low block and direct countering has not translated well into recent results, and with their xG per match sitting at a paltry 0.63, they may struggle to trouble Hibernian's defence. On the flip side, Hibernian's possession control will likely dictate the tempo and could wear down Shkеndija, who have been porous with an xGA of 1.7 per match. The model's top predicted result of 1-0 for Hibernian at 14% reflects this dynamic, with the home side favoured to edge it.

With the over 2.5 goals sitting at 42% and both teams to score at just 44%, the game leans towards a lower-scoring affair. The weather hasn't been mentioned, so we trust these numbers to guide us. Hibernian's control might stifle any attacking thrust Shkеndija muster, resulting in limited opportunities for the visitors.

Nonetheless, for those seeking value, Pinnacle offers an intriguing 6.6 for a Shkеndija win, although the model rates their chances at just 21%. The draw at odds of 3.98 also holds potential value, with the model suggesting a 31% probability, translating to a 22% edge. However, the sharpest angle here might be the under 2.5 goals at 1.84 with Pinnacle, capturing a 7% edge. With both teams struggling to convert chances, this conservative play aligns neatly with the expected patterns we anticipate on the pitch.

Hibernian

Form WWDLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #23xT #29xP/match #5Points #66

Shkëndija

Form LWLLL

League ranking xG #73xGA #49xT #70xP/match #57Points #30

Key players

Liridon LatifiLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.06
Aleksander TrumciRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Arbin ZejnullaiRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Hibernian – Shkëndija

Predicted score matrix

Shkëndija →

Hibernian →

0–09.9%

0–17.3%

0–23.1%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–014.4%

1–112.2%

1–24.8%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.4%

2–19.2%

2–23.7%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.2%

3–05.9%

3–14.7%

3–21.9%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–03.2%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.0-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,55–0,80

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.84EV+7%

Over 2,542%

@1.93

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hibernian to win49%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hibernian to win49%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Martin Boyle to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Martin Boyle to score27%
Aleksander Trumci to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Shkëndija21% probability@6.60PinnacleEV+37%
X · Draw31% probability@3.98PinnacleEV+22%
Under 2.558% probability@1.84PinnacleEV+7%

Bookmaker	1 · Hibernian	X	2 · Shkëndija
Pinnacle	1.44	EV+ 22% 3.98	EV+ 37% 6.60

Odds updated 4 Aug, 22:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Shkëndija win since 2 August — the odds have shortened from 7.56 to 6.60 (−13%).

1+5 %

67 %62 %

1.37 → 1.44

X-7 %

25 %20 %

4.29 → 3.98

2-13 %

15 %10 %

7.56 → 6.60

Over 2,5+3 %

52 %47 %

1.87 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 02/08/2026 → 04/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Shkеndija have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Shkëndija

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Shkëndija (4–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Shkëndija

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Shkëndija

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hibernian	Shkëndija
Points	1	7
xPoints	3.6	8.5
xG per match	1.9	0.63
xGA per match	1.2	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.37	0.21

Playing style	Hibernian	Shkëndija
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.26
Field tilt	0.48	0.28
xT per match	0.95	0.49
xTA per match	0.73	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.19	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.29
Entries into the box per match	14	6
Entries into the box against	9	14
Pass completion %	0.72	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.72
Passes per match	277	276
Passes against per match	378	459
Switches of play per match	26.7	21.9
Long balls per match	35	28

Set pieces	Hibernian	Shkëndija
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.03
Corners per match	5.5	2.9
Corners against per match	3.4	4.6
xG per corner	0.08	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.09
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.38	0.56

Other	Hibernian	Shkëndija
Throw-in control	0.73	0.61

The goalkeepers	Hibernian	Baboucarr Gaye (Shkëndija)
Saves	–	28
Save %	–	74%
xG prevented	–	40%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hibernian vs Shkëndija according to our model?

The model gives Hibernian a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hibernian 49%, draw 31%, Shkëndija 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.