Zrinjski Mostar vs Valur: Prediction & Odds (30 Jul 2026)

Conference League30 July 2026

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Zrinjski Mostar

The model's lean: 1 · Zrinjski Mostar (50%)

Best value by the model: 2 · Valur @ 12.42 (+178 %)

Valur

1 · Zrinjski Mostar 50%X 27%22% Valur · 2

50%

27%

22%

Match prediction: Zrinjski Mostar – Valur

Predicted score matrix

Valur →

Zrinjski Mostar →

0–04.9%

0–14.8%

0–22.8%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–08.9%

1–110.3%

1–25.5%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.1%

2–19.9%

2–25.4%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–06.0%

3–16.5%

3–23.6%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.7%

4+–15.1%

4+–22.8%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-09%
4.1-09%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

1,98–1,09

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

–

Over 2,559%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Zrinjski Mostar to win50%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Zrinjski Mostar to win50%
Over 2.5 goals59%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals59%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Valur22% probability@12.42PinnacleEV+178%
X · Draw27% probability@6.06PinnacleEV+66%
Under 3.563% probability@1.63PinnacleEV+3%

Bookmaker	1 · Zrinjski Mostar	X	2 · Valur
Pinnacle	1.18	EV+ 66% 6.06	EV+ 178% 12.42

Odds updated 28 Jul, 12:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Zrinjski Mostar win since 27 July — the odds have shortened from 1.27 to 1.18 (−7%).

1-7 %

80 %70 %

1.27 → 1.18

X+17 %

21 %11 %

5.19 → 6.06

2+45 %

14 %4 %

8.57 → 12.42

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 28/07/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Zrinjski Mostar vs Valur according to our model?

The model gives Zrinjski Mostar a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zrinjski Mostar 50%, draw 27%, Valur 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.