IFK Göteborg vs Gent: Prediction & Odds (6 Aug 2026)

Conference League6 August 202618°2,3 mm32 km/h

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IFK Göteborg

The model's lean: 1 · IFK Göteborg (44%)

GentBalanced & physical

1 · IFK Göteborg 44%X 25%31% Gent · 2

44%

25%

31%

Analysis: IFK Göteborg – Gent

Oscar Nilsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Goteborg have been riding high on a 44% win probability against KAA Gent, with a model that leans decidedly in their favour. Despite the narrow edge, it's their expected goals tally of 1.47 that suggests an ambitious approach at home, with the model favouring a Goteborg win at odds of 3.27 with Pinnacle — a tantalising 45% edge that could tempt the bravest of punters. The weather, however, throws in a dampener with 2.3 mm of rain forecasted, which might just be perfect for the Swedish side to grind out a result, although it could also suppress the goal count.

KAA Gent travel with a 31% chance of claiming victory, balancing their hopes on an expected goals figure of 1.31. In the slippery conditions, Gent's knack for tactical play could be hampered, evening the scales in a contest where the most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), and 1-0 (9%). With both teams to score odds sitting at 57%, it’s evident that neither side is particularly dominant in defense. However, Goteborg's slight edge in attacking intent places them in the driver's seat.

A glance at the over/under 2.5 goals market reveals a 53% inclination towards the over, with value lurking at odds of 1.909 with Pinnacle, which offers a modest 1% edge. This statistically driven gamble is bolstered by Goteborg’s attacking metrics and Gent’s potential midfield vulnerabilities. Still, the rain may play its part in dampening goalmouth action, a factor the model has already accounted for.

Goteborg seem primed to edge out a narrow victory, with a 2-1 scoreline emerging as a plausible outcome. For those chasing value, the home win at 3.27 with Pinnacle stands out, especially given the 44% win probability. Whether it’s a wet night in Goteborg or not, this clash presents more than a few attractive angles, with the hosts well-positioned to deliver under the floodlights.

IFK Göteborg

Gent

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #29xGA #20xT #18xP/match #19Points #22

Key players

Tsuyoshi WatanabeCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.09
Omri GandelmanCAMxG 0.49 · xT -0.01
Momodou Lamin SonkoLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: IFK Göteborg – Gent

Predicted score matrix

Gent →

IFK Göteborg →

0–06.5%

0–17.8%

0–25.3%

0–32.3%

0–4+1.0%

1–08.8%

1–112.3%

1–27.8%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.7%

2–18.8%

2–25.8%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.3%

3–14.3%

3–22.8%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,47–1,31

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.10

Over 2,553%

@1.91EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance IFK Göteborg or draw (1X)67%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance IFK Göteborg or draw (1X)67%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Sam Larsson to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Sam Larsson to score28%
Leonardo Adelino da Silva Lopes to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · IFK Göteborg44% probability@3.27PinnacleEV+45%
1 · IFK Göteborg44% probability@2.30Paddy PowerEV+2%
Over 2.553% probability@1.91PinnacleEV+1%

Bookmaker	1 · IFK Göteborg	X	2 · Gent
Paddy Power	EV+ 2% 2.30	3.50	2.63
Pinnacle	EV+ 45% 3.27	3.25	2.04

Odds updated 4 Aug, 15:53

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Gent win since 3 August — the odds have shortened from 2.26 to 2.04 (−10%).

1+13 %

32 %27 %

2.90 → 3.27

X+3 %

31 %26 %

3.17 → 3.25

2-10 %

45 %40 %

2.26 → 2.04

Over 2,50 %

52 %47 %

1.92 → 1.91

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 03/08/2026 → 04/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

When goals are scored and conceded — 2024

Gent (9–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gent

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gent

The goalkeepers	IFK Göteborg	Davy Roef (Gent)
Saves	–	28
Save %	–	76%
xG prevented	–	73%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IFK Göteborg vs Gent according to our model?

The model gives IFK Göteborg a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Göteborg 44%, draw 25%, Gent 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.