Ilves vs Stjarnan: Prediction & Odds (30 Jul 2026)

Conference League30 July 202619°16 km/h

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Ilves

The model's lean: 1 · Ilves (51%)

Best value by the model: 2 · Stjarnan @ 4.42 (+18 %)

Stjarnan

1 · Ilves 51%X 22%27% Stjarnan · 2

51%

22%

27%

Match prediction: Ilves – Stjarnan

Predicted score matrix

Stjarnan →

Ilves →

0–03.2%

0–14.1%

0–23.2%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.8%

1–05.8%

1–19.2%

1–26.6%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.2%

2–19.1%

2–26.7%

2–33.3%

2–4+1.7%

3–04.2%

3–16.2%

3–24.6%

3–32.3%

3–4+1.1%

4+–03.5%

4+–15.1%

4+–23.8%

4+–31.8%

4+–4+0.9%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-19%
2.2-19%
3.2-27%
4.1-27%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

2,05–1,47

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+28%

Under 2,532%

–

Over 2,568%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ilves to win51%
Over 1.5 goals87%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Ilves to win51%
Over 2.5 goals68%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score67%
Over 2.5 goals68%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Stjarnan27% probability@4.42PinnacleEV+18%

Bookmaker	1 · Ilves	X	2 · Stjarnan
Pinnacle	1.68	3.90	EV+ 18% 4.42

Odds updated 30 Jul, 06:08

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Ilves win since 27 July — the odds have shortened from 1.79 to 1.68 (−6%).

1-6 %

56 %51 %

1.79 → 1.68

X+7 %

27 %22 %

3.64 → 3.90

2+15 %

25 %20 %

3.85 → 4.42

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 30/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ilves vs Stjarnan according to our model?

The model gives Ilves a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ilves 51%, draw 22%, Stjarnan 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.