Inter Turku vs İstanbul Başakşehir: Prediction & Odds (30 Jul 2026)

Conference League30 July 202620°19 km/h

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Inter Turku

2–0

The model's lean: 2 · İstanbul Başakşehir (43%)

Best value by the model: 1 · Inter Turku @ 4.86 (+62 %)

İstanbul Başakşehir

1 · Inter Turku 33%X 24%43% İstanbul Başakşehir · 2

33%

24%

43%

Final score

2 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Inter Turku 33% · Draw 24% · İstanbul Başakşehir 43%

Match prediction: Inter Turku – İstanbul Başakşehir

Predicted score matrix

İstanbul Başakşehir →

Inter Turku →

0–06.8%

0–18.7%

0–26.4%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.4%

1–08.3%

1–112.4%

1–28.5%

1–34.0%

1–4+1.9%

2–05.7%

2–18.1%

2–25.7%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.3%

3–02.6%

3–13.6%

3–22.5%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,34–1,41

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,548%

@2.01

Over 2,552%

@1.79

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance İstanbul Başakşehir or draw (X2)65%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance İstanbul Başakşehir or draw (X2)65%
Over 2.5 goals52%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Inter Turku33% probability@4.86PinnacleEV+62%

Bookmaker	1 · Inter Turku	X	2 · İstanbul Başakşehir
Pinnacle	EV+ 62% 4.86	3.80	1.64

Odds updated 30 Jul, 06:08

Odds movement

1+13 %

23 %18 %

4.32 → 4.86

X+4 %

27 %22 %

3.64 → 3.80

2-4 %

58 %53 %

1.70 → 1.64

Over 2,5-2 %

55 %50 %

1.82 → 1.79

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 30/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Inter Turku vs İstanbul Başakşehir according to our model?

The model gives İstanbul Başakşehir a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Inter Turku 33%, draw 24%, İstanbul Başakşehir 43%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.