Ludogorets Razgrad vs Hapoel Tel Aviv: Prediction & Odds (30 Jul 2026)

Conference League30 July 202625°11 km/h

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Ludogorets Razgrad

The model's lean: 1 · Ludogorets Razgrad (47%)

Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.90 (+4 %)

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1 · Ludogorets Razgrad 47%X 27%26% Hapoel Tel Aviv · 2

47%

27%

26%

Match prediction: Ludogorets Razgrad – Hapoel Tel Aviv

Predicted score matrix

Hapoel Tel Aviv →

Ludogorets Razgrad →

0–07.0%

0–17.3%

0–24.4%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.6%

1–010.1%

1–112.2%

1–26.8%

1–32.6%

1–4+1.0%

2–08.1%

2–19.3%

2–25.3%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–04.3%

3–14.9%

3–22.8%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.4%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,57–1,15

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@1.96

Over 2,551%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ludogorets Razgrad to win47%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Ludogorets Razgrad to win47%
Over 2.5 goals51%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals51%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw27% probability@3.90PinnacleEV+4%
2 · Hapoel Tel Aviv26% probability@3.88PinnacleEV+1%

Bookmaker	1 · Ludogorets Razgrad	X	2 · Hapoel Tel Aviv
Pinnacle	1.75	EV+ 4% 3.90	EV+ 1% 3.88

Odds updated 29 Jul, 20:08

Odds movement

10 %

55 %50 %

1.76 → 1.75

X0 %

26 %21 %

3.91 → 3.90

2+4 %

27 %22 %

3.74 → 3.88

Over 2,50 %

54 %49 %

1.85 → 1.85

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 29/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ludogorets Razgrad vs Hapoel Tel Aviv according to our model?

The model gives Ludogorets Razgrad a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ludogorets Razgrad 47%, draw 27%, Hapoel Tel Aviv 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.