Paide vs Rapid Wien: Prediction & Odds (6 Aug 2026)

Conference League6 August 202621°1,2 mm23 km/h

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Paide

The model's lean: 2 · Rapid Wien (45%)

Best value by the model: 1 · Paide @ 10.14 (+213 %)

Rapid WienPossession & high press

1 · Paide 31%X 24%45% Rapid Wien · 2

31%

24%

45%

Analysis: Paide – Rapid Wien

Oscar Nilsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Paide's chance of pulling off an upset against SK Rapid Vienna sits at an intriguing 31%, lending this match a dash of unpredictability. Yet, it’s the Austrians who are the bookies’ favourites, with a 45% chance of walking away with a win. Their edge isn't just on paper; it's in the subtle margins of expected goals, where they lead with 1.59 to Paide's 1.29. However, the weather might play a role, suppressing goals if rain and wind rear their heads, though this has already been factored into the model's calculations.

SK Rapid Vienna will likely focus on maintaining their narrow statistical advantage. Their most plausible victory scenarios, a 1-2 or a 0-1 win, underline a defensive resolve that could frustrate the home side. Paide, unfazed by the odds, will look to exploit any crack in SK Rapid Vienna's armour, possibly leading to the most likely result: a 1-1 draw at 12%.

Paide has an ace up their sleeve — the potential for a big payout with Pinnacle offering home odds of 10.14, boasting a whopping 213% edge according to the model. For those inclined to chase long shots, laying a modest wager here could prove enticing. Similarly, the value in a draw, with odds at 5.49 and a 30% edge, presents another avenue for a calculated gamble.

Settling on a scoreline prediction sways towards a narrow affair, likely 1-2 in favour of the visitors. The model's 55% lean towards over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring fits well within this narrative. Yet, with SK Rapid Vienna's defensive posture and Paide's knack for disrupting expectations, goals could be at a premium.

For those with an affinity for value betting, Paide’s home odds with Pinnacle offers an intriguing, albeit risky, prospect. It's a gamble that, should fortune favour the brave, could yield handsome rewards against the odds.

Paide

Form DD

Rapid Wien

Form LLDWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #2xP/match #2Points #1

Key players

Matthias SeidlCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Bendeguz BollaRWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.64
Yusuf DemirRWxG 0.49 · xT 0.30

Match prediction: Paide – Rapid Wien

Predicted score matrix

Rapid Wien →

Paide →

0–05.9%

0–18.6%

0–27.1%

0–33.7%

0–4+2.1%

1–06.9%

1–111.8%

1–29.1%

1–34.8%

1–4+2.7%

2–04.7%

2–17.4%

2–25.9%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.8%

3–02.0%

3–13.2%

3–22.5%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,29–1,59

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

–

Over 2,555%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rapid Wien to win45%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rapid Wien to win45%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Tonni Adamsen to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Abdoulie Ceesay to score25%
Predrag Medić to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Paide31% probability@10.14PinnacleEV+213%
X · Draw24% probability@5.49PinnacleEV+30%

Bookmaker	1 · Paide	X	2 · Rapid Wien
Pinnacle	EV+ 213% 10.14	EV+ 30% 5.49	1.22

Odds updated 4 Aug, 22:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Rapid Wien win since 2 August — the odds have shortened from 1.35 to 1.22 (−9%).

1+35 %

15 %5 %

7.50 → 10.14

X+20 %

23 %13 %

4.57 → 5.49

2-9 %

77 %67 %

1.35 → 1.22

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 02/08/2026 → 04/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rapid Wien

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rapid Wien (9–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rapid Wien

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rapid Wien

The goalkeepers	Paide	Nenad Cvetkovic (Rapid Wien)
Saves	–	1
Save %	–	100%
xG prevented	–	100%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Paide vs Rapid Wien according to our model?

The model gives Rapid Wien a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Paide 31%, draw 24%, Rapid Wien 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.