Panathinaikos vs Paks: Prediction & Odds (30 Jul 2026)

Conference League30 July 202628°21 km/h

Läs på svenska

Panathinaikos

2–2

The model's lean: 1 · Panathinaikos (53%)

Best value by the model: 2 · Paks @ 8.70 (+91 %)

Paks

1 · Panathinaikos 53%X 25%22% Paks · 2

53%

25%

22%

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Panathinaikos 53% · Draw 25% · Paks 22%

Match prediction: Panathinaikos – Paks

Predicted score matrix

Paks →

Panathinaikos →

0–07.2%

0–16.5%

0–23.4%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–011.2%

1–111.8%

1–25.8%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.6%

2–19.7%

2–24.9%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–05.4%

3–15.4%

3–22.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.3%

4+–13.3%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.2-010%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,68–1,00

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

–

Over 2,550%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Panathinaikos to win53%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Panathinaikos to win53%
Over 2.5 goals50%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals50%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Paks22% probability@8.70PinnacleEV+91%
X · Draw25% probability@5.48PinnacleEV+38%

Bookmaker	1 · Panathinaikos	X	2 · Paks
Pinnacle	1.25	EV+ 38% 5.48	EV+ 91% 8.70

Odds updated 30 Jul, 00:08

Odds movement

10 %

75 %70 %

1.25 → 1.25

X+1 %

19 %14 %

5.45 → 5.48

20 %

13 %8 %

8.70 → 8.70

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 30/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Panathinaikos vs Paks according to our model?

The model gives Panathinaikos a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Panathinaikos 53%, draw 25%, Paks 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.