Raków Częstochowa vs Hammarby: Prediction & Odds (6 Aug 2026)

Conference League6 August 202626°1,1 mm34 km/h

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Raków CzęstochowaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Hammarby (40%)

Hammarby

1 · Raków Częstochowa 35%X 24%40% Hammarby · 2

35%

24%

40%

Analysis: Raków Częstochowa – Hammarby

Anna Karlsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Hammarby's 40% to win away at Rakow Czestochowa is not just a nod from the model but a clarion call for punters. With expected goals tilting slightly in Hammarby's favor at 1.49 to Rakow's 1.35, this is a contest where the bookmakers seem to have underestimated the visitors. The odds on Hammarby are too juicy to ignore, especially with Betfair Exchange offering a tantalizing 3.65, which the model rates as providing a 48% edge. For those betting brains out there, this is a rare opportunity where the numbers themselves are doing the shouting.

Rakow Czestochowa have the theoretical advantage of being at home, but the model favors Hammarby, and for good reason. The most likely scorelines pinpoint a tight affair, with 1-1 (12%) and 1-2 (9%) being at the forefront. Despite the narrow margins, Hammarby's form and scoring potential give them the edge in this matchup. The over 2.5 goals market is priced at 54%, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game, although the presence of both teams on the scoresheet at 58% is where the real intrigue lies.

As for Rakow, they're not out of the picture, but the numbers are not on their side. A win probability of 35% pales in comparison to Hammarby's 40%, and while home turf is usually a factor, the data suggests it's not enough to swing this tie. Hammarby's potential to outscore their hosts makes the 1-2 scoreline a plausible outcome. With no extreme weather predicted to suppress scoring, expect both teams to find the net.

Hammarby, then, looks like the shrewd play here with superior value. Betfair Exchange at 3.65 offers the best odds for those willing to back the model's lean. In a clash where margins are slight but significant, this is a game begging for a calculated risk — and Hammarby to win provides just that.

Raków Częstochowa

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #28xGA #8xT #37xP/match #18Points #8

Key players

Stratos SvarnasCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
Patryk MakuchFxG 0.13 · xT 0.05
Jonatan Braut BrunesFxG 0.39 · xT 0.06

Hammarby

Form LW

Match prediction: Raków Częstochowa – Hammarby

Predicted score matrix

Hammarby →

Raków Częstochowa →

0–06.1%

0–18.3%

0–26.5%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.7%

1–07.5%

1–112.1%

1–28.8%

1–34.4%

1–4+2.3%

2–05.3%

2–17.9%

2–25.9%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.4%

3–13.6%

3–22.7%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,35–1,49

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.00

Over 2,554%

@1.86EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Hammarby or draw (X2)66%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Hammarby or draw (X2)66%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Jusef Erabi to score38%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Jusef Erabi to score38%
Oskar Repka to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Hammarby40% probability@3.65Betfair ExchangeEV+48%
2 · Hammarby40% probability@3.27PinnacleEV+32%
2 · Hammarby40% probability@3.10Paddy PowerEV+25%

Bookmaker	1 · Raków Częstochowa	X	2 · Hammarby
Betfair Exchange	2.12	3.50	EV+ 48% 3.65
Paddy Power	2.00	3.50	EV+ 25% 3.10
Pinnacle	2.09	3.13	EV+ 32% 3.27

Odds updated 4 Aug, 22:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Hammarby win since 3 August — the odds have shortened from 3.59 to 3.27 (−9%).

1+9 %

48 %38 %

1.92 → 2.09

X-5 %

33 %23 %

3.31 → 3.13

2-9 %

33 %23 %

3.59 → 3.27

Over 2,5+2 %

56 %46 %

1.82 → 1.85

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 03/08/2026 → 04/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Raków Częstochowa

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Raków Częstochowa (16–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Raków Częstochowa

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Raków Częstochowa

The goalkeepers	Oliwier Zych (Raków Częstochowa)	Hammarby
Saves	25	–
Save %	83%	–
xG prevented	71%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Raków Częstochowa vs Hammarby according to our model?

The model gives Hammarby a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Raków Częstochowa 35%, draw 24%, Hammarby 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.