The New Saints vs Flora: Prediction & Odds (30 Jul 2026)

Conference League30 July 2026

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The New Saints

The model's lean: 1 · The New Saints (43%)

Best value by the model: 2 · Flora @ 4.26 (+56 %)

Flora

1 · The New Saints 43%X 21%37% Flora · 2

43%

21%

37%

Match prediction: The New Saints – Flora

Predicted score matrix

Flora →

The New Saints →

0–05.2%

0–16.9%

0–25.3%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.3%

1–07.2%

1–111.4%

1–28.2%

1–34.0%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.8%

2–18.6%

2–26.3%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.6%

3–03.0%

3–14.4%

3–23.3%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,55–1,48

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@1.94

Over 2,558%

@1.85EV+8%

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance The New Saints or draw (1X)64%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance The New Saints or draw (1X)64%
Over 2.5 goals58%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals58%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Flora37% probability@4.26PinnacleEV+56%
Over 2.558% probability@1.85PinnacleEV+8%

Bookmaker	1 · The New Saints	X	2 · Flora
Pinnacle	1.73	3.58	EV+ 56% 4.26

Odds updated 30 Jul, 04:08

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 27 July — the odds have shortened from 2.01 to 1.85 (−8%).

1-1 %

58 %48 %

1.75 → 1.73

X+4 %

31 %21 %

3.43 → 3.58

2-2 %

26 %16 %

4.36 → 4.26

Over 2,5-8 %

54 %44 %

2.01 → 1.85

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 30/07/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins The New Saints vs Flora according to our model?

The model gives The New Saints a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: The New Saints 43%, draw 21%, Flora 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.