Tobol vs Panevėžys: Prediction & Odds (30 Jul 2026)

Conference League30 July 202628°0,7 mm23 km/h

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Tobol

The model's lean: 1 · Tobol (50%)

Best value by the model: 2 · Panevėžys @ 8.56 (+88 %)

Panevėžys

1 · Tobol 50%X 28%22% Panevėžys · 2

50%

28%

22%

Match prediction: Tobol – Panevėžys

Predicted score matrix

Panevėžys →

Tobol →

0–08.3%

0–17.0%

0–23.4%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–012.5%

1–112.1%

1–25.5%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.3%

2–19.5%

2–24.4%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–05.5%

3–15.1%

3–22.4%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.2%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-012%
2.1-112%
3.2-010%
4.2-19%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,61–0,92

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@2.26EV+21%

Over 2,546%

@1.60

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Tobol to win50%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Tobol to win50%
Under 2.5 goals54%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals46%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Panevėžys22% probability@8.56PinnacleEV+88%
X · Draw28% probability@5.34PinnacleEV+50%
Under 2.554% probability@2.26PinnacleEV+21%

Bookmaker	1 · Tobol	X	2 · Panevėžys
Pinnacle	1.27	EV+ 50% 5.34	EV+ 88% 8.56

Odds updated 30 Jul, 06:08

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 27 July — the odds have shortened from 1.72 to 1.60 (−7%).

1+1 %

76 %71 %

1.26 → 1.27

X+2 %

19 %14 %

5.22 → 5.34

2-9 %

12 %7 %

9.39 → 8.56

Over 2,5-7 %

59 %54 %

1.72 → 1.60

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 30/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Tobol vs Panevėžys according to our model?

The model gives Tobol a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tobol 50%, draw 28%, Panevėžys 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.