Zalgiris vs Hajduk Split: Prediction & Odds (6 Aug 2026)

Conference League6 August 202627°0,9 mm9 km/h

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Zalgiris

The model's lean: 1 · Zalgiris (58%)

Hajduk Split

1 · Zalgiris 58%X 20%22% Hajduk Split · 2

58%

20%

22%

Analysis: Zalgiris – Hajduk Split

Sofia Andersson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Zalgiris are poised to take the spotlight with a 58% probability of winning, a figure that towers over Hajduk Split's meager 22%. The model not only leans towards a Zalgiris victory but also sees a clear value in the odds offered. Pinnacle’s odds of 3.67 for a Zalgiris win present a juicy 114% edge, a rare gem for any bettor looking for value.

Hajduk Split, despite being on the pitch, faces an uphill battle if the expected goals of 1.93 for Zalgiris and 1.17 for Hajduk are any indication. Zalgiris have been outperforming, making a compelling case for a home win, especially when the most likely scorelines hover around a Zalgiris advantage, with both the 2-1 and 1-0 scenarios each coming in at 8-10%.

A small head-to-head sample might suggest caution, but the numbers from recent form and expected goals speak for themselves. The over 2.5 goals market, with a 60% likelihood, and the propensity for both teams to score at 59%, indicates an open game. The model sees a 5% edge in the over 2.5 goals at 1.757 with Pinnacle, a modest but solid value for those inclined towards a goals-fest.

Zalgiris look set to edge this, and a 2-1 home win seems a fitting prediction, given the stats. With favorable conditions and a confident home side, both the Zalgiris win at odds of 3.67 and the over 2.5 goals market are tantalizing prospects. The sharpest play might be to trust the model's lean and grab the value in a Zalgiris victory, backed by the compelling numbers.

Zalgiris

Form LL

Hajduk Split

Form DL

Match prediction: Zalgiris – Hajduk Split

Predicted score matrix

Hajduk Split →

Zalgiris →

0–04.8%

0–15.0%

0–23.1%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–08.5%

1–110.5%

1–25.9%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.4%

2–19.8%

2–25.7%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.4%

3–16.3%

3–23.7%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–04.1%

4+–14.7%

4+–22.8%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.1-08%
4.2-08%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,93–1,17

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@1.99

Over 2,560%

@1.76EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Zalgiris to win58%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Zalgiris to win58%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Liviu Antal to score39%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Liviu Antal to score39%
Niko Sigur to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Zalgiris58% probability@3.67PinnacleEV+114%
Over 2.560% probability@1.76PinnacleEV+5%

Bookmaker	1 · Zalgiris	X	2 · Hajduk Split
Pinnacle	EV+ 114% 3.67	3.47	1.87

Odds updated 4 Aug, 04:52

Odds movement

1-1 %

26 %21 %

3.69 → 3.67

X-1 %

28 %23 %

3.49 → 3.47

2+1 %

53 %48 %

1.85 → 1.87

Over 2,50 %

56 %51 %

1.75 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 03/08/2026 → 04/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

When goals are scored and conceded — 2023

Zalgiris (0–7)

Hajduk Split (0–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Zalgiris

Hajduk Split

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Zalgiris

Hajduk Split

The goalkeepers	Edvinas Gertmonas (Zalgiris)	Ivan Lučić (Hajduk Split)
Saves	5	4
Save %	50%	57%
xG prevented	48%	25%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Zalgiris vs Hajduk Split according to our model?

The model gives Zalgiris a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zalgiris 58%, draw 20%, Hajduk Split 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.