Austrian Bundesliga17°14 km/h

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    RiedRiedPossession control
    4–1
    WolfsbergWolfsbergLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Ried (54%)

    Ried vs Wolfsberg · Austrian Bundesliga

    1 · Ried 54%X 26%19% Wolfsberg · 2

    Analysis: Ried – Wolfsberg

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Ried's tactical stability and historical dominance make them the favorites against Wolfsberg in this matchup. The model gives the hosts a 54% chance of winning, supported by their superior expected goals (xG) of 1.77 compared to Wolfsberg's 1.02. The home side's approach, built on possession control, contrasts with Wolfsberg's low defense and direct style. This could see Ried dictating play, a scenario where they’ve excelled in past encounters.

    The head-to-head record, though a small sample of five games, leans in favor of Ried with three wins. Wolfsberg has struggled to break down Ried’s structure, and with expected goals against (xGA) statistics showing Ried's defense as more resolute, the visitors face an uphill battle. Rain might dampen the attacking fluidity, but the model’s over 2.5 goals probability of 53% suggests goals are still likely.

    Ried's expected points of 8.1, compared to Wolfsberg's 7.0, highlight their consistent performance advantage. Both teams scoring is pegged at 53%, indicating a balanced threat. However, Ried's ability to generate xG swiftly after winning possession (0.25) underlines their capacity to exploit openings, especially against Wolfsberg’s less robust defense.

    The match could tilt towards a narrow home victory, with 1-0 or 2-1 as plausible outcomes given the tactical setup and statistical backing. For bettors, the value lies in the home win at odds of 1.88 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model's 54% win probability for Ried suggests a 2% edge over these odds, marking it as a savvy play for those looking to capitalize on Ried's tactical and historical edge.

    RiedRied
    Form LLWLD
    League ranking xG #6xGA #6xT #6xP/match #6Points #10
    Key players
    • Niama Pape SissokoFxG 0.71 · xT 0.03
    • Moegamat Yusuf MaartCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
    • Evan Eghosa AisowierenFxG 0.40 · xT 0.00
    WolfsbergWolfsberg
    Form DLDLL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #9xT #12xP/match #9Points #9
    Key players
    • Giacomo VrioniFxG 0.50 · xT 0.04
    • Nicolas WimmerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
    • Donis AvdijajFxG 0.11 · xT 0.05
    Final score
    4 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Ried 54% · Draw 26% · Wolfsberg 19%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - SV RiedBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,23fair 6,62-21 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - Wolfsberger ACBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,62fair 19,55-46 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Ried – Wolfsberg

    Predicted score matrix

    Wolfsberg →
    Ried →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.5%
    0–16.0%
    0–23.2%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–010.6%
    1–111.4%
    1–25.7%
    1–31.9%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.6%
    2–19.8%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–05.6%
    3–15.8%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–03.7%
    4+–13.8%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-010%
    5. 5.0-06%
    Expected goals
    1,77–1,02
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.21EV+2%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.71

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Ried to win54%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.28

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Ried to win54%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Jaedin Rhodes to score21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Jaedin Rhodes to score21%
    • Raffael Behounek to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Ried54% probability@2.20Bet365EV+20%reference odds
    • 1 · Ried54% probability@2.04PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
    • Both teams to score: No47% probability@2.25Bet365EV+5%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · RiedX2 · Wolfsberg
    Bet365
    EV+ 20%
    2.20    		3.502.88
    Betsafe
    EV+ 4%
    1.92    		3.453.45
    Betsson
    EV+ 4%
    1.92    		3.453.45
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 4%
    1.92    		3.453.45
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 11%
    2.04    		3.523.78

    Odds updated 20 Sept, 11:35

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    50 %45 %

    2.07 → 2.04

    X+2 %
    30 %25 %

    3.46 → 3.52

    2+7 %
    28 %23 %

    3.53 → 3.78

    Over 2,5+3 %
    59 %54 %

    1.66 → 1.71

    Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 13/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Ried 3Draw 1Wolfsberg 1
    Goals: 5–3 (⌀ 1,6)

    Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • SV Ried dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Ried
    Wolfsberg
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Ried (7–11)
    Wolfsberg (6–9)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Ried
    Moegamat Yusuf Maart: 226 passningar, xT 0.51MaartOliver Steurer: 193 passningar, xT 0.34SteurerSamuel Johansen Chukwudi: 187 passningar, xT 0.33ChukwudiLukas Malicsek: 169 passningar, xT 0.37MalicsekStefan Schwab: 152 passningar, xT 0.33SchwabAndreas Leitner: 152 passningar, xT 0.33LeitnerYussef Nasrawe: 117 passningar, xT 0.44NasraweOliver Sorg: 85 passningar, xT 0.24SorgAnte Bajić: 73 passningar, xT 0.34BajićMartin Rasner: 53 passningar, xT 0.06RasnerPhilipp Pomer: 45 passningar, xT 0.2Pomer
    Wolfsberg
    Fabian Wohlmuth: 132 passningar, xT 0.47WohlmuthRaffael Behounek: 123 passningar, xT 0.16BehounekMarco Sulzner: 103 passningar, xT 0.2SulznerLukas Gütlbauer: 101 passningar, xT 0.15GütlbauerMatteo Kitz: 90 passningar, xT 0.01KitzOtar Mamageishvili: 88 passningar, xT 0.1MamageishviliRene Renner: 75 passningar, xT 0.19RennerNicolas Wimmer: 75 passningar, xT 0.25WimmerSimon Piesinger: 73 passningar, xT 0.16PiesingerAaron Sky Schwarz: 72 passningar, xT 0.31SchwarzCheikh Mamadou Diabaté: 42 passningar, xT -0.03Diabaté
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Ried
    Moegamat Yusuf Maart: 226 passningar, xT 0.51MaartOliver Steurer: 193 passningar, xT 0.34SteurerSamuel Johansen Chukwudi: 187 passningar, xT 0.33ChukwudiLukas Malicsek: 169 passningar, xT 0.37MalicsekStefan Schwab: 152 passningar, xT 0.33SchwabAndreas Leitner: 152 passningar, xT 0.33LeitnerYussef Nasrawe: 117 passningar, xT 0.44NasraweOliver Sorg: 85 passningar, xT 0.24SorgAnte Bajić: 73 passningar, xT 0.34BajićMartin Rasner: 53 passningar, xT 0.06RasnerPhilipp Pomer: 45 passningar, xT 0.2Pomer
    Wolfsberg
    Fabian Wohlmuth: 132 passningar, xT 0.47WohlmuthRaffael Behounek: 123 passningar, xT 0.16BehounekMarco Sulzner: 103 passningar, xT 0.2SulznerLukas Gütlbauer: 101 passningar, xT 0.15GütlbauerMatteo Kitz: 90 passningar, xT 0.01KitzOtar Mamageishvili: 88 passningar, xT 0.1MamageishviliRene Renner: 75 passningar, xT 0.19RennerNicolas Wimmer: 75 passningar, xT 0.25WimmerSimon Piesinger: 73 passningar, xT 0.16PiesingerAaron Sky Schwarz: 72 passningar, xT 0.31SchwarzCheikh Mamadou Diabaté: 42 passningar, xT -0.03Diabaté

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRiedWolfsberg
    Points55
    xPoints8.17
    xG per match1.50.88
    xGA per match1.51.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.250.23
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.320.34
    Playing styleRiedWolfsberg
    Build-up efficiency0.280.33
    Field tilt0.50.29
    xT per match0.990.58
    xTA per match1.11.5
    Won balls, offensive half2624
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.250.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.2
    Entries into the box per match127
    Entries into the box against1417
    Pass completion %0.750.68
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.64
    Passes per match332247
    Passes against per match373422
    Switches of play per match20.821.5
    Long balls per match3030
    Set piecesRiedWolfsberg
    xG from free kicks0.090.03
    Corners per match4.63.1
    Corners against per match4.67.9
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.430.26
    First touch, defensive corners %0.540.44
    OtherRiedWolfsberg
    Throw-in control0.680.66
    The goalkeepersAndreas Leitner (Ried)Lukas Gütlbauer (Wolfsberg)
    Saves1714
    Save %61%64%
    xG prevented41%35%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Ried
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Wolfsberg
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Ried vs Wolfsberg according to our model?

    The model gives Ried a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ried 54%, draw 26%, Wolfsberg 19%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.