01 · 2 legs
Safe
- LASK to win77%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
Austrian Bundesliga17°10 km/h
Läs på svenska
HartbergCounter-attacks & crosses3–3
LASKPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · LASK (77%)Best value by the model: No @ 2.25 (+17 %)
Hartberg vs LASK · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Hartberg 8%X 15%77% LASK · 2
15%
77%
Analysis: Hartberg – LASK
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
LASK's relentless high-pressing game faces off against Hartberg’s counter-attacks and crosses in a contest that appears decidedly tilted towards the visitors. With a model probability as high as 77% favoring the visitors, the numbers suggest a strong likelihood of LASK dominance. The expected goals tally of 2.80 for the visitors compared to just 0.72 for the hosts underlines this disparity, painting a picture of two sides on very different trajectories.
Hartberg's best hope lies in their ability to capitalize on swift counter-attacks. However, LASK’s defensive stability—boasting an xGA of just 0.69 per match—could stifle their limited opportunities. The visitors' offensive might is further emphasized by their scoring streak, finding the net in 15 consecutive league matches. The 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals aligns with a scenario where the visitors' attacking prowess could run rampant.
The historical head-to-head record, while only a modest sample of nine matches, still paints a clear picture: LASK has been unbeaten, securing four victories and five draws. This track record feeds into the current form as well, where LASK's 15 points and xPoints of 12.7 significantly overshadow Hartberg’s 7 points and xPoints of 6.2. The statistical edge is clear, and with Hartberg struggling at both ends of the pitch, it's hard to envision them turning the tide.
Given the conditions, a 0-2 or even a 0-3 scoreline seems plausible. LASK's superior metrics across the board point to a favorable outcome, with over 2.5 goals being the sensible play. Value seekers might be enticed by any odds that overestimate Hartberg's chances, but the focus should be on exploiting the gap in quality, particularly if LASK can be found at decent odds above their implied win probability.
HartbergForm LLWWD
League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #11xP/match #10Points #6
Key players
- Marco HoffmannFxG 0.44 · xT 0.01
- Angelo GattermayerFxG 0.15 · xT 0.12
- Tobias KainzRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
LASKForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Moses UsorFxG 0.68 · xT 0.15
- George BelloLWBxG 0.14 · xT 0.19
- Christoph LangLWxG 0.36 · xT 0.07
Final score
3 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Hartberg 8% · Draw 15% · LASK 77%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - LASKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,28fair 3,83-14 %
MissMatchresultat - HartbergBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 24,32fair 61,80-61 %
MissMatch prediction: Hartberg – LASK
Predicted score matrix
LASK →
Hartberg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.2%
0–18.2%
0–211.7%
0–310.9%
0–4+15.0%
1
1–02.0%
1–16.1%
1–28.3%
1–37.8%
1–4+10.8%
2
2–00.8%
2–12.1%
2–23.0%
2–32.8%
2–4+3.9%
3
3–00.2%
3–10.5%
3–20.7%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–00.0%
4+–10.1%
4+–20.1%
4+–30.1%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-212%
- 2.0-311%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-38%
Expected goals
0,72–2,80
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+28%
Under 2,532%
@2.62
Over 2,568%
@1.48EV+1%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- LASK to win77%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Kryštof Daněk to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Kryštof Daněk to score30%
- Benjamin Markuš to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Both teams to score: No52% probability@2.25Bet365EV+17%reference odds
- 2 · LASK77% probability@1.31BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- 2 · LASK77% probability@1.31BetssonEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hartberg | X | 2 · LASK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 1% 12.00 | 5.75 | 1.22 |
| Betsafe | 8.30 | 4.55 | EV+ 1% 1.31 |
| Betsson | 8.30 | 4.55 | EV+ 1% 1.31 |
| Nordicbet | 8.30 | 4.55 | EV+ 1% 1.31 |
| Pinnacle | 10.22 | 5.55 | EV+ 1% 1.31 |
Odds updated 20 Sept, 11:35
Odds movement
1-8 %
11 %6 %
11.07 → 10.22
X-3 %
19 %14 %
5.71 → 5.55
2+5 %
77 %72 %
1.25 → 1.31
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
9 matchesHartberg 0Draw 5LASK 4
Goals: 8–16 (⌀ 2,7)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- LASK dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 9 meetings.
- LASK have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hartberg
LASK
Hartberg (7–10)
LASK (16–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hartberg
LASK
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hartberg
LASK
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hartberg | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 15 |
| xPoints | 6.2 | 12.7 |
| xG per match | 0.86 | 2.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 0.69 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.52 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.37 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Hartberg | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.24 | 0.8 |
| xT per match | 0.68 | 1.7 |
| xTA per match | 1.7 | 0.54 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 19 | 5 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 274 | 438 |
| Passes against per match | 435 | 255 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.4 | 47.2 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 52 |
| Set pieces | Hartberg | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 7.9 |
| Corners against per match | 10.4 | 1.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.64 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| Other | Hartberg | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Ármin Pécsi (Hartberg) | Lukas Jungwirth (LASK) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 11 |
| Save % | 71% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 60% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hartberg vs LASK according to our model?
The model gives LASK a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hartberg 8%, draw 15%, LASK 77%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.