Genk vs Kortrijk Prediction: Home win 72% (10 Oct 2026)

Belgian Pro League10 October 2026Cegeka Arena, Genk13°7,2 mm28 km/h

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GenkPossession & high press

KortrijkPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Genk (72%)

1 · Genk 72%X 18%11% Kortrijk · 2

72%

18%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Genk – Kortrijk

Oscar Nilsson · 2 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: A decisive 72% win probability for Genk sets the stage for their encounter with Kortrijk. The model's figures lean heavily towards the hosts, who have not only accumulated nine points compared to the visitors' three but also exhibit stronger expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) stats. Genk's 2-0 and 2-1 predicted scorelines, each at 10%, underline their attacking prowess against a Kortrijk side struggling defensively.

Kortrijk's lone win in the four-match head-to-head is a small sample and carries less weight than current form. The visitors' xG of 0.92 per match pales against Genk's 2.35 — a significant attacking advantage for the home side. Rain is predicted, potentially dampening scoring chances, yet the model still sees a 64% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams finding the net. Despite Kortrijk's possession control, the high press and offensive capabilities of Genk are expected to prevail.

For bettors, the value appears with LeoVegas offering Genk to win at odds of 1.4, aligning perfectly with the model's 72% probability. However, there is no edge here, as the odds simply reflect the model's own assessment. Expect a 2-0 outcome, with the over 2.5 goals still in play despite the weather.

Genk

Form DWDDL

League ranking xG #6xGA #6xT #7xP/match #6Points #10

Key players

Rafiu Adekunle DurosinmiFxG 0.66 · xT -0.02
Bryan HeynenCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.20
Joris KayembeLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.21

Kortrijk

Form LLLLW

League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #15xP/match #15Points #18

Key players

Shandre CampbellRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.12
Axel DrouhinCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
Jamie John RocheCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Genk – Kortrijk

Predicted score matrix

Kortrijk →

Genk →

0–04.0%

0–13.2%

0–21.6%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–08.6%

1–18.4%

1–23.8%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–010.5%

2–19.7%

2–24.5%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–08.2%

3–17.6%

3–23.5%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–08.4%

4+–17.8%

4+–23.6%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-18%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,35–0,92

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,536%

@2.36

Over 2,564%

@1.56

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Genk to win72%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Genk to win72%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Jeppe Erenbjerg to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Jeppe Erenbjerg to score32%
Gilles Ruyssen to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Genk72% probability@1.46BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
1 · Genk72% probability@1.46NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
1 · Genk72% probability@1.42LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Genk	X	2 · Kortrijk
Betsafe	EV+ 5% 1.46	4.30	6.70
LeoVegas	EV+ 2% 1.42	4.50	6.25
Nordicbet	EV+ 5% 1.46	4.30	6.70

Odds updated 3 Oct, 21:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

67 %62 %

1.40 → 1.42

X0 %

23 %18 %

4.50 → 4.50

2+4 %

17 %12 %

6.00 → 6.25

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Genk 3Draw 0Kortrijk 1

Goals: 11–4 (⌀ 3,8)

Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Genk

Kortrijk

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Genk (13–12)

Kortrijk (2–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Genk

Kortrijk

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Genk

Kortrijk

The teams in numbers

Performance	Genk	Kortrijk
Points	9	3
xPoints	10.4	7.5
xG per match	1.7	0.93
xGA per match	1.3	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.34

Playing style	Genk	Kortrijk
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.28
Field tilt	0.51	0.37
xT per match	1.1	0.86
xTA per match	1.3	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	26	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.23
Entries into the box per match	15	8
Entries into the box against	15	16
Pass completion %	0.81	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.65
Passes per match	425	321
Passes against per match	379	403
Switches of play per match	38.4	23.8
Long balls per match	40	33

Set pieces	Genk	Kortrijk
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.06
Corners per match	3.7	3.4
Corners against per match	6.4	5.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.54

Other	Genk	Kortrijk
Throw-in control	0.79	0.7

The goalkeepers	Lucca Brughmans (Genk)	Marko Ilić (Kortrijk)
Saves	19	20
Save %	63%	63%
xG prevented	40%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Genk

Fixtures, form & tips

Kortrijk

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Genk vs Kortrijk according to our model?

The model gives Genk a 72% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Genk 72%, draw 18%, Kortrijk 11%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.