Beveren vs Lommel Prediction: Home win 54% (9 Oct 2026)

Belgian Pro League9 October 2026Freethiel Stadion, Beveren11°7,2 mm25 km/h

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BeverenBalanced & physical

LommelCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Beveren (54%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.22 (+8 %)

1 · Beveren 54%X 27%19% Lommel · 2

54%

27%

19%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Beveren – Lommel

Sofia Andersson · 2 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The visitors, on the other hand, come to the game with a counter-attacking style that could exploit any lapses in Beveren's defense. Lommel's defense has been marginally better, conceding an xGA of 1.9 per match against Beveren's 2.0. Still, recent form combined with expected goals becomes more telling than raw points totals.

The model gives Beveren a 54% chance of victory, highlighting them as the favorites, although not overwhelmingly so. The expected goals suggest a Beveren scoreline advantage, but both teams have over 50% chances to find the net. Most likely outcomes cluster around low-scoring results: 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1.

Weather conditions—rain at 13.2°C—could suppress the goal count, dampening both sides' attacking ambitions. This aligns with the model's over/under prediction, as the edge lies with the under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.1 offered by LeoVegas. Rated at 48%, the under presents a slight edge in expected value, making it a considered play in a matchup where defensive solidity might just overshadow offensive flair.

As kickoff approaches, the smart money might lean towards a narrow victory for Beveren or a draw, with the under 2.5 goals holding the sharpest angle in this weather-affected, tactical battle.

Beveren

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #14xGA #16xT #11xP/match #17Points #9

Key players

Jearl MargarithaFxG 0.29 · xT 0.14
Chris-Emmanuel Dikwama LokesaLWxG 0.41 · xT 0.09
Christian BrülsCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.23

Lommel

Form WWLLD

League ranking xG #17xGA #15xT #18xP/match #14Points #12

Key players

Lucas SchoofsCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.04
Jason van DuivenRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
Tom ReynersLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Beveren – Lommel

Predicted score matrix

Lommel →

Beveren →

0–06.8%

0–16.5%

0–23.6%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.6%

1–111.8%

1–26.1%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.2%

2–19.7%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.1%

3–15.4%

3–22.9%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.1%

4+–13.3%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,68–1,06

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,548%

@2.22EV+8%

Over 2,552%

@1.64

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Beveren to win54%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Beveren to win54%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Lennart Mertens to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Lennart Mertens to score27%
Dries Wouters to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.548% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
Under 2.548% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
Under 1.524% probability@4.45BetsafeEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Beveren	X	2 · Lommel
Betsafe	1.82	3.60	4.10
LeoVegas	1.83	3.60	3.75
Nordicbet	1.82	3.60	4.10

Odds updated 3 Oct, 06:36

Odds movement

1-3 %

53 %48 %

1.88 → 1.82

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.60 → 3.60

2+5 %

26 %21 %

3.90 → 4.10

Over 2,5-3 %

59 %54 %

1.68 → 1.63

Nordicbet · 4 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Beveren

Lommel

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Beveren (7–11)

Lommel (6–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Beveren

Lommel

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Beveren

Lommel

The teams in numbers

Performance	Beveren	Lommel
Points	9	8
xPoints	7.4	7.6
xG per match	1.2	0.98
xGA per match	2	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.45	0.3

Playing style	Beveren	Lommel
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.43	0.3
xT per match	1.1	0.61
xTA per match	1.6	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	26	19
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.18
Entries into the box per match	13	8
Entries into the box against	18	20
Pass completion %	0.75	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.74
Passes per match	399	355
Passes against per match	411	442
Switches of play per match	26.7	23.4
Long balls per match	40	33

Set pieces	Beveren	Lommel
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.07
Corners per match	4.5	3.4
Corners against per match	4.6	7.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.58
First touch, defensive corners %	0.39	0.54

Other	Beveren	Lommel
Throw-in control	0.77	0.69

The goalkeepers	Johannes Schenk (Beveren)	Matthias Pieklak (Lommel)
Saves	23	25
Save %	70%	78%
xG prevented	43%	78%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Beveren

Fixtures, form & tips

Lommel

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Beveren vs Lommel according to our model?

The model gives Beveren a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Beveren 54%, draw 27%, Lommel 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.