Standard Liège vs Royal Charleroi Prediction: Away win 37% (11 Oct 2026)

Belgian Pro League11 October 2026Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Liège11°16 km/h

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Standard LiègePossession control

Royal CharleroiPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Royal Charleroi (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.83 (+2 %)

1 · Standard Liège 34%X 29%37% Royal Charleroi · 2

34%

29%

37%

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Analysis: Standard Liège – Royal Charleroi

Sofia Andersson · 2 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The odds figure "2.80 with Bet365" is not supported by any data in the FACTS and should be removed.

RSC Charleroi's attacking form shines through as they prepare to face Standard Liège, having found the net in nine consecutive league outings. This consistency aligns with the model's lean towards the visitors, reflected in their 37% win probability against Liège's 34%. The numbers suggest a tight contest but hint at an edge for Charleroi in both current form and expected goals.

Standard Liège, despite their possession-based approach, have struggled to convert control into points, collecting 11 compared to Charleroi's 18. The hosts' defensive vulnerabilities are evident in their xGA of 1.5 per match, contrasting sharply with Charleroi's more robust 0.92. The visitors' ability to suppress opposition chances while maintaining a higher xG of 1.9 suggests they'll be more efficient in front of goal.

The head-to-head statistics are close, with Charleroi slightly ahead, claiming four wins to Liège's three in their last eight encounters. However, given the sample size, this historical edge weighs less heavily against the current form and xG dynamics. Both teams favor a possession-oriented style, but it's Charleroi's ability to transition into effective attacks that might tip the balance.

Weather conditions, with rain expected, could dampen scoring opportunities, yet the model still projects a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% likelihood of both teams scoring. This indicates that while the game might start cautiously, it could open up as players adjust to the slick surface.

For bettors, the value lies in backing Charleroi. The visitors' superior xG numbers and scoring streak, combined with Liège's defensive lapses, make a 1-2 scoreline plausible. While the over 2.5 goals market is slightly favored, the real edge is in Charleroi's potential to capitalize on their chances and come away with a vital win.

Standard Liège

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #10xP/match #8Points #7

Key players

Dennis Yerai Eckert AyensaFxG 0.44 · xT 0.05
Adnane AbidLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.27
Casper NielsenRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.28

Royal Charleroi

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #5xP/match #3Points #4

Key players

Aurélien ScheidlerFxG 0.64 · xT 0.06
Kévin Daniel Guitoun Van Den KerkhofRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.24
Patrick PflückeRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Standard Liège – Royal Charleroi

Predicted score matrix

Royal Charleroi →

Standard Liège →

0–05.8%

0–17.8%

0–26.1%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.6%

1–07.4%

1–111.9%

1–28.6%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.5%

2–18.2%

2–26.1%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.6%

3–02.6%

3–13.8%

3–22.9%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,41–1,49

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@1.99

Over 2,555%

@1.83EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Royal Charleroi or draw (X2)64%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Royal Charleroi or draw (X2)64%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Ismael Cisse to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Dennis Yerai Eckert Ayensa to score26%
Alexis Trouillet to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.555% probability@1.83PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Standard Liège	X	2 · Royal Charleroi
Betsafe	2.92	3.45	2.30
LeoVegas	2.80	3.35	2.30
Nordicbet	2.92	3.45	2.30
Pinnacle	2.92	3.41	2.39

Odds updated 4 Oct, 14:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Standard Liège 3Draw 1Royal Charleroi 4

Goals: 8–10 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

Key facts

RSC Charleroi have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Standard Liège

Royal Charleroi

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Standard Liège (13–12)

Royal Charleroi (15–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Standard Liège

Royal Charleroi

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Standard Liège

Royal Charleroi

The teams in numbers

Performance	Standard Liège	Royal Charleroi
Points	11	18
xPoints	9.7	12.7
xG per match	1.6	1.9
xGA per match	1.5	0.92
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.38	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.49	0.24

Playing style	Standard Liège	Royal Charleroi
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.34
Field tilt	0.56	0.57
xT per match	1.1	1.4
xTA per match	1.2	0.95
Won balls, offensive half	28	30
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.3
Entries into the box per match	15	15
Entries into the box against	15	11
Pass completion %	0.74	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.74
Passes per match	387	436
Passes against per match	340	309
Switches of play per match	26.4	39.4
Long balls per match	35	44

Set pieces	Standard Liège	Royal Charleroi
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.1
Corners per match	6.1	5.3
Corners against per match	4.7	4.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.72

Other	Standard Liège	Royal Charleroi
Throw-in control	0.69	0.64

The goalkeepers	Matthieu Epolo (Standard Liège)	Mohamed Koné (Royal Charleroi)
Saves	18	17
Save %	60%	74%
xG prevented	37%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Standard Liège

Fixtures, form & tips

Royal Charleroi

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Standard Liège vs Royal Charleroi according to our model?

The model gives Royal Charleroi a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Standard Liège 34%, draw 29%, Royal Charleroi 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.