01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Bodø/Glimt or draw (X2)62%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Champions League14°3,3 mm25 km/h
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NapoliCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Bodø/GlimtPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Bodø/Glimt (43%)
Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt · Champions League
1 · Napoli 35%X 22%43% Bodø/Glimt · 2
35%
22%
43%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt (Champions League, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Napoli win 35%, draw 22%, Bodø/Glimt win 43%. Expected goals (xG): Napoli 1.51, Bodø/Glimt 1.46. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Napoli or draw 57%, Bodø/Glimt or draw 65%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
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Analysis: Napoli – Bodø/Glimt
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Napoli's strategy centers on counter-attacks and crossing, a style that will clash starkly with Bodø/Glimt's possession-based high press. This tactical tension could shape the match dynamics at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Statistics suggest an intriguing battle, with the visitors' pressing game likely to unsettle Napoli, who struggle to maintain possession against aggressive setups. The model leans towards a Bodø/Glimt victory, offering them a 43% chance compared to Napoli's 35%.
Recent form gives Bodø/Glimt the upper hand. They've amassed nine points with an xG per match of 1.8, significantly higher than Napoli's 0.25. Defensively, the hosts have been porous, conceding an xGA of 3.8 per match, which could spell trouble against the Norwegian side's efficient attack.
Weather conditions forecast 3.3 mm of rain, which might slightly dampen scoring possibilities, yet the model still shows a 57% probability for over 2.5 goals. Both teams are likely to find the net, with the likelihood sitting at 60%. The most probable outcomes are a 1-1 draw or a 2-1 win for either side. Given the xG and playing styles, a 1-2 result seems plausible.
NapoliForm WLDLL
League ranking xG #54xGA #55xT #51xP/match #54Points #42
Key players
- Stanislav LobotkaCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
- Rasmus HojlundFxG 0.36 · xT 0.00
- Giovanni Di LorenzoRWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.17
Bodø/GlimtForm LWWWL
League ranking xG #18xGA #32xT #18xP/match #27Points #2
Key players
- Jens Petter HaugeLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.33
- Patrick BergCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.10
- Andreas HelmersenFxG 0.88 · xT -0.01
Match prediction: Napoli – Bodø/Glimt
Predicted score matrix
Bodø/Glimt →
Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.5%
0–17.2%
0–25.5%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–07.4%
1–111.6%
1–28.3%
1–34.0%
1–4+2.0%
2
2–05.8%
2–18.5%
2–26.2%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–02.9%
3–14.3%
3–23.1%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,51–1,46
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
–
Over 2,557%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Bodø/Glimt or draw (X2)62%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Jens Petter Hauge to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- André-Frank Zambo Anguissa to score24%
- Stanislav Lobotka to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Napoli
Bodø/Glimt
Napoli (0–1)
Bodø/Glimt (9–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Napoli
Bodø/Glimt
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Napoli
Bodø/Glimt
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Napoli | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 9 |
| xPoints | 0.2 | 5.4 |
| xG per match | 0.25 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.73 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Napoli | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 0.36 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 11 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 4 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 34 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.8 |
| Passes per match | 413 | 497 |
| Passes against per match | 593 | 381 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.9 | 33.6 |
| Long balls per match | 41 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Napoli | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 0 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 6.3 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0 | 0.58 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.62 |
| Other | Napoli | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.83 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Alex Meret (Napoli) | Nikita Haikin (Bodø/Glimt) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 15 |
| Save % | 100% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 61% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid20 October 2026
- Manchester City – AEK Athens20 October 2026
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha20 October 2026
- Paris Saint-Germain – FC Barcelona20 October 2026
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund20 October 2026
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava20 October 2026
- Porto – PSV Eindhoven20 October 2026
- Liverpool – Villarreal20 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt according to our model?
The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Napoli 35%, draw 22%, Bodø/Glimt 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt?
The model expects 1.51 goals (xG) for Napoli and 1.46 for Bodø/Glimt, 2.97 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Napoli or draw (1X) 57%, Bodø/Glimt or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 78%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.