01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Atlético de Madrid or draw (X2)61%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Champions League9°15 km/h
Läs på svenska
StuttgartPossession controlvs
Atlético de MadridCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Atlético de Madrid (41%)Soft draw
Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid · Champions League
1 · Stuttgart 38%X 21%41% Atlético de Madrid · 2
38%
21%
41%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid (Champions League, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Stuttgart win 38%, draw 21%, Atlético de Madrid win 41%. Expected goals (xG): Stuttgart 1.62, Atlético de Madrid 1.58. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Stuttgart or draw 59%, Atlético de Madrid or draw 62%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The text conflates VfB Stuttgart's season-long xG per match (2.3) with the actual match expected goals, which are nearly even (1.62 vs 1.58). This creates a misleading claim that "the expected goals tell a different story" favoring Stuttgart, when in fact the match-specific expected goals are close and don't clearly favor either side.
CORRECTED TEXT:
The key figure here is VfB Stuttgart's impressive xG per match of 2.3, a stark contrast to Atlético de Madrid's more modest 0.63. This offensive potency, combined with Stuttgart's superior xGA of 0.71 against Atlético's 1.4, suggests a tilt in the hosts' favor despite the model's slight inclination towards Madrid. Stuttgart not only holds the edge in terms of expected points but also outpaces the visitors in both creating and preventing chances.
While the model gives Atlético a slight 41% probability of winning, the match's own expected goals are actually quite close (1.62 for Stuttgart vs 1.58 for Atlético), suggesting a tighter contest than the season-long stats imply. Stuttgart's ability to control possession could dictate the tempo, potentially unsettling Atlético's counter-attacking style. The 1-1 scoreline appears as the most probable outcome at 11%, but the broader numbers hint at Stuttgart's capability to edge this contest, perhaps leaning toward a 2-1 victory.
From a betting perspective, the best value could lie in backing the home side. With their demonstrative xG figures and the edge in xPoints, Stuttgart's 38% win probability provides a tempting prospect. Additionally, the over 2.5 goals market, manifested at 62%, aligns with Stuttgart's attacking prowess and should not be overlooked.
StuttgartForm LWWLW
League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #11xP/match #10Points #27
Key players
- Angelo StillerCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.18
- Chris FuhrichLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.15
- Jeff ChabotCBxG 0.24 · xT 0.02
- Numbers from Bundesliga 2026
Atlético de MadridForm WLDLL
League ranking xG #48xGA #23xT #49xP/match #43Points #49
Key players
- Julián AlvarezFxG 0.49 · xT 0.16
- Alexander SørlothFxG 0.56 · xT 0.07
- Antoine GriezmannFxG 0.35 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid
Predicted score matrix
Atlético de Madrid →
Stuttgart →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–16.1%
0–25.1%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.5%
1
1–06.3%
1–110.7%
1–28.2%
1–34.3%
1–4+2.4%
2
2–05.4%
2–18.5%
2–26.7%
2–33.5%
2–4+2.0%
3
3–02.9%
3–14.6%
3–23.6%
3–31.9%
3–4+1.1%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.7%
4+–22.1%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-18%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.1-06%
Expected goals
1,62–1,58
Both teams to score
64%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
–
Over 2,562%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Atlético de Madrid or draw (X2)61%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Julián Alvarez to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score64%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Julián Alvarez to score23%
- Jorge Resurrección Merodio to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Atlético de Madrid
Stuttgart (3–1)
Atlético de Madrid (1–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Stuttgart
Atlético de Madrid
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Stuttgart
Atlético de Madrid
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Stuttgart | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 0 |
| xPoints | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| xG per match | 2.3 | 0.63 |
| xGA per match | 0.71 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.07 | 0.46 |
| Playing style | Stuttgart | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.7 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 0.48 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 18 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.36 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 19 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 562 | 461 |
| Passes against per match | 309 | 357 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.2 | 27 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Stuttgart | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.2 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 7.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.6 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.8 | 0.43 |
| Other | Stuttgart | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.88 | 0.83 |
| The goalkeepers | Fabian Bredlow (Stuttgart) | Jan Oblak (Atlético de Madrid) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 2 | 3 |
| Save % | 67% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 62% | 61% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt20 October 2026
- Manchester City – AEK Athens20 October 2026
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha20 October 2026
- Paris Saint-Germain – FC Barcelona20 October 2026
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund20 October 2026
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava20 October 2026
- Porto – PSV Eindhoven20 October 2026
- Liverpool – Villarreal20 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid according to our model?
The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Stuttgart 38%, draw 21%, Atlético de Madrid 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid?
The model expects 1.62 goals (xG) for Stuttgart and 1.58 for Atlético de Madrid, 3.20 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Stuttgart or draw (1X) 59%, Atlético de Madrid or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.