01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Porto to win47%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Champions League16°0,6 mm11 km/h
Läs på svenska
PortoLow block & directvs
PSV EindhovenPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Porto (47%)
Porto vs PSV Eindhoven · Champions League
1 · Porto 47%X 23%29% PSV Eindhoven · 2
47%
23%
29%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Porto vs PSV Eindhoven (Champions League, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Porto win 47%, draw 23%, PSV Eindhoven win 29%. Expected goals (xG): Porto 1.66, PSV Eindhoven 1.45. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Porto or draw 71%, PSV Eindhoven or draw 53%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Porto – PSV Eindhoven
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: A glance at the recent head-to-head record between Porto and PSV Eindhoven reveals a limited data set, which means less weight in our considerations. With fewer than six games to analyze, it's the current form and expected goals that play a critical role in this Champions League clash. Porto, with a 47% chance of winning according to model probabilities, has a slight edge over PSV's 29%. Yet, the visitors have shown a stronger edge in points and expected points, revealing a subtle tension between perceived strengths and actual performance.
Porto’s playing style is characterized by a low defense and direct approach, contrasting sharply with PSV’s possession-focused control. This tactical dichotomy suggests a clash of philosophies that could influence the flow of the game. Despite Porto's favored status, they have yet to secure points, and their expected goals (xG) per match, a mere 0.24, pales in comparison to PSV's more robust 0.59. The defensive vulnerabilities are stark, with Porto conceding an expected goals against (xGA) of 2.9 per match compared to PSV's impressive 0.54.
The model has pegged a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 11%, followed by a 2-1 Porto victory at 9%. With both teams likely to find the net, the 62% probability for both teams to score hints at an open contest, and the 60% chance of over 2.5 goals further supports the likelihood of a high-scoring, open encounter rather than a cautious one.
Despite the model's lean towards Porto, the underlying stats give PSV a tactical and statistical edge, signaling potential value in backing PSV Eindhoven to win.
PortoForm LWWLL
League ranking xG #55xGA #51xT #50xP/match #51Points #45
Key players
- Francisco MouraLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.31
- William GomesRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.23
- Gabri VeigaLWxG 0.39 · xT 0.17
- Numbers from Primeira Liga 2026
PSV EindhovenForm WLLLD
League ranking xG #49xGA #6xT #55xP/match #25Points #39
Key players
- Joey VeermanCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
- Ismael Saibari Ben El BasraCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.08
- Jerdy SchoutenCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Porto – PSV Eindhoven
Predicted score matrix
PSV Eindhoven →
Porto →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.8%
0–16.2%
0–24.7%
0–32.3%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–07.1%
1–111.1%
1–27.8%
1–33.7%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–06.2%
2–18.9%
2–26.5%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–03.4%
3–14.9%
3–23.6%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–02.1%
4+–13.0%
4+–22.2%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
1,66–1,45
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
–
Over 2,560%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Porto to win47%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Victor Mow Froholdt to score17%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Ivan Perišić to score21%
- Noah Fernandez to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
PSV Eindhoven
Porto (0–2)
PSV Eindhoven (1–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Porto
PSV Eindhoven
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Porto
PSV Eindhoven
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Porto | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 1 |
| xPoints | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 0.24 | 0.59 |
| xGA per match | 2.9 | 0.54 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.01 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.92 | 0.36 |
| Playing style | Porto | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.15 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 0.4 | 0.25 |
| xTA per match | 2 | 0.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 37 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 5 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 4 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 290 | 411 |
| Passes against per match | 600 | 336 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.4 | 38.5 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 40 |
| Set pieces | Porto | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 2 | 3.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 3.2 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.4 | 1 |
| Other | Porto | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| The goalkeepers | Diogo Costa (Porto) | Filip Kostić (PSV Eindhoven) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 2 |
| Save % | 80% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 70% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt20 October 2026
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid20 October 2026
- Manchester City – AEK Athens20 October 2026
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha20 October 2026
- Paris Saint-Germain – FC Barcelona20 October 2026
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund20 October 2026
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava20 October 2026
- Liverpool – Villarreal20 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Porto vs PSV Eindhoven according to our model?
The model gives Porto a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Porto 47%, draw 23%, PSV Eindhoven 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
The model expects 1.66 goals (xG) for Porto and 1.45 for PSV Eindhoven, 3.11 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Porto or draw (1X) 71%, PSV Eindhoven or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.