Hradec Králové vs Teplice: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Czech First League20 September 202615°5,6 mm19 km/h

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Hradec KrálovéPossession control

TeplicePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Hradec Králové (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · Teplice @ 4.40 (+2 %)

1 · Hradec Králové 50%X 26%23% Teplice · 2

50%

26%

23%

Analysis: Hradec Králové – Teplice

Erik Lindberg · 18 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Hradec Králové's defensive control at home is the foundation here. Their 55% win rate on their own turf, combined with Teplice's struggle to find consistency, tilts the balance. While both teams favor possession, the home side's ability to manage games in familiar surroundings could prove decisive. The rain and mild temperature of 15.1°C are likely to suppress the tempo, further reinforcing a low-scoring prediction.

Despite Teplice showing a slight edge in expected goals per match (1.4 to Hradec's 1.1), their defensive frailties — conceding xGA of 1.4 per game — present vulnerabilities. Hradec's defensive solidity (xGA of 1.0) is a crucial factor. It may just take a single goal for the hosts to secure the win, given the expected weather impact and both teams' conservative styles.

The head-to-head record since 2023, albeit from a small sample of four games, shows Hradec with a slight upper hand. Yet, this pales compared to their home form and Teplice's defensive gaps. The model leans towards a Hradec victory (50%) with a most likely scoreline of 1-1 (12%), but a narrow 1-0 win is almost equally plausible at 11%.

With a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals, and the weather already factored in, the under 2.5 goals play emerges as a prudent option. Hradec's tendency to keep games tight, coupled with Teplice's porous defense, tilts this match toward a controlled, low-scoring affair. Bookmakers offering odds that reflect the home side's win probability underscore the cautious optimism around a home victory — especially in a low-scoring context. If you find Hradec priced attractively, it might just cover the rent this month.

Hradec Králové

Form LLWDW

League ranking xG #12xGA #3xT #13xP/match #9Points #6

Key players

Mick Van BurenFxG 0.25 · xT 0.11
Filip CihakCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.07
Tom SloncikLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.01

Teplice

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #5xP/match #8Points #8

Key players

Lukas MarecekCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.09
Matej RadostaRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
Josef SvandaRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Hradec Králové – Teplice

Predicted score matrix

Teplice →

Hradec Králové →

0–07.4%

0–17.2%

0–24.0%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.9%

1–112.3%

1–26.4%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.9%

2–19.4%

2–25.0%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.7%

3–15.0%

3–22.6%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.6%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,58–1,07

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.80

Over 2,549%

@1.90

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hradec Králové to win50%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hradec Králové to win50%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Mick van Buren to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Mick van Buren to score22%
Lukáš Mareček to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Teplice23% probability@4.40BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
2 · Teplice23% probability@4.40BetssonEV+2%reference odds
2 · Teplice23% probability@4.40NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hradec Králové	X	2 · Teplice
Betsafe	1.72	3.45	EV+ 2% 4.40
Betsson	1.72	3.45	EV+ 2% 4.40
Nordicbet	1.72	3.45	EV+ 2% 4.40

Odds updated 18 Sept, 07:37

Odds movement

1-2 %

55 %50 %

1.75 → 1.72

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.45 → 3.45

2+2 %

23 %18 %

4.30 → 4.40

Over 2,50 %

51 %46 %

1.90 → 1.90

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Hradec Králové 2Draw 1Teplice 1

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 0,8)

Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Hradec Kralove win 55% of their home matches all-time (38 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hradec Králové

Teplice

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hradec Králové (8–7)

Teplice (15–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hradec Králové

Teplice

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hradec Králové

Teplice

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hradec Králové	Teplice
Points	14	13
xPoints	11.3	11.4
xG per match	1.1	1.4
xGA per match	1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.12

Playing style	Hradec Králové	Teplice
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.32
Field tilt	0.56	0.54
xT per match	0.89	1.1
xTA per match	0.84	1
Won balls, offensive half	20	19
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.23
Entries into the box per match	12	11
Entries into the box against	14	12
Pass completion %	0.77	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.71
Passes per match	380	306
Passes against per match	317	335
Switches of play per match	23.4	21.2
Long balls per match	31	28

Set pieces	Hradec Králové	Teplice
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.03
Corners per match	4.9	5.7
Corners against per match	6.7	4.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.79

Other	Hradec Králové	Teplice
Throw-in control	0.73	0.69

The goalkeepers	Adam Zadrazil (Hradec Králové)	Matous Trmal (Teplice)
Saves	29	21
Save %	81%	62%
xG prevented	55%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hradec Králové

Fixtures, form & tips

Teplice

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hradec Králové vs Teplice according to our model?

The model gives Hradec Králové a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hradec Králové 50%, draw 26%, Teplice 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.