01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Sparta Praha or draw (X2)64%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Czech First League17°1,9 mm17 km/h
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Sigma OlomoucPossession controlvs
Sparta PrahaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Sparta Praha (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.72 (+8 %)
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha · Czech First League
1 · Sigma Olomouc 35%X 27%38% Sparta Praha · 2
35%
27%
38%
Analysis: Sigma Olomouc – Sparta Praha
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The most striking number here is the over 2.5 goals probability, sitting at a solid 62%. This aligns with both teams' expected goals, where Olomouc is at 1.56 and Sparta Praha at 1.63. Together, these figures suggest a match leaning toward multiple goals. The high percentage of both teams to score at 64% further underscores the likelihood of an open game. Yet, despite the home side's slight edge in current points, the visitors carry a historical advantage in this fixture.
Olomouc may have the upper hand in the standings, but the underlying metrics tell a different story. Sparta's xPoints at 12.2 eclipse those of the hosts, and their superior xG of 2.0 per match signals a more potent attack. Historically, Sparta has outperformed Olomouc in head-to-head encounters, notching three wins from their last five meetings. While this sample is relatively small and less predictive than form and expected goals, it still lends weight to Sparta's potential edge in this clash.
For those looking to capitalize on the betting market, there's intriguing value on the over 3.5 goals market at odds of 2.72 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With the model rating this outcome at 40%, it presents an 8% edge—highlighting an aggressive play for a potentially high-scoring affair.
Sigma OlomoucForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #11xGA #7xT #15xP/match #12Points #3
Key players
- Václav SejkFxG 0.23 · xT 0.04
- Dominik JanosekCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
- Péter BaráthCDMxG 0.21 · xT 0.04
Sparta PrahaForm WWLLW
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #1xP/match #5Points #9
Key players
- Adam KarabecRWxG 0.44 · xT 0.19
- Roman MacekCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
- Tobias Kvalvågnes GuddalCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Sigma Olomouc – Sparta Praha
Predicted score matrix
Sparta Praha →
Sigma Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–16.4%
0–25.5%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–06.1%
1–110.8%
1–28.5%
1–34.7%
1–4+2.7%
2
2–05.0%
2–18.2%
2–26.7%
2–33.6%
2–4+2.1%
3
3–02.6%
3–14.2%
3–23.5%
3–31.9%
3–4+1.1%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.9%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.0-16%
Expected goals
1,56–1,63
Both teams to score
64%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.00
Over 2,562%
@1.72EV+6%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Sparta Praha or draw (X2)64%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Adam Karabec to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score64%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Adam Karabec to score26%
- Abdoulaye Sylla to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.540% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
- Over 3.540% probability@2.72BetssonEV+8%reference odds
- Over 3.540% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sigma Olomouc | X | 2 · Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.12 |
| Betsson | EV+ 5% 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.12 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.12 |
Odds updated 18 Sept, 10:37
Odds movement
1+7 %
34 %29 %
2.80 → 3.00
X-1 %
29 %24 %
3.45 → 3.40
2-4 %
44 %39 %
2.22 → 2.12
Over 2,5+2 %
57 %52 %
1.68 → 1.72
Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesSigma Olomouc 1Draw 1Sparta Praha 3
Goals: 5–7 (⌀ 2,4)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Key facts
- AC Sparta Prague dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sigma Olomouc
Sparta Praha
Sigma Olomouc (16–10)
Sparta Praha (15–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sigma Olomouc
Sparta Praha
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sigma Olomouc
Sparta Praha
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sigma Olomouc | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 12 |
| xPoints | 10.2 | 12.2 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 2 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 0.99 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Sigma Olomouc | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.77 |
| xT per match | 0.87 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.89 | 0.66 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 7 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 414 | 462 |
| Passes against per match | 304 | 216 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.5 | 31.1 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Sigma Olomouc | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 7.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.2 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.64 |
| Other | Sigma Olomouc | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| The goalkeepers | Jan Koutny (Sigma Olomouc) | Jakub Surovcik (Sparta Praha) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 17 |
| Save % | 69% | 59% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 30% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha according to our model?
The model gives Sparta Praha a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sigma Olomouc 35%, draw 27%, Sparta Praha 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.