01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Slavia Praha to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Czech First League17°3,4 mm14 km/h
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Slavia PrahaPossession & high pressvs
Viktoria PlzeňPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Slavia Praha (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · Viktoria Plzeň @ 5.70 (+34 %)
Slavia Praha vs Viktoria Plzeň · Czech First League
1 · Slavia Praha 50%X 27%24% Viktoria Plzeň · 2
50%
27%
24%
Analysis: Slavia Praha – Viktoria Plzeň
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Slavia Praha's home clash with Viktoria Plzeň presents a fascinating tactical duel, both teams known for their possession and high pressing styles. Slavia, underpinned by a model probability of 50% to win, enter the match as favorites, buoyed by their current form—a three-game winning streak. With a historical dominance over Plzeň since 2023, including five wins out of six encounters, Slavia clearly hold the upper hand. However, the small head-to-head sample size means current form and expected goals are more telling indicators.
On the metrics front, Slavia's dominance is evident: they average 2.3 xG per match compared to Plzeň's 1.6, emphasizing their offensive strength. Yet, both teams mirror each other defensively with an xGA of 1.0 per match, indicating potential resilience on both sides. The expected goals total of 3.18 implies an open match, despite the weather forecast of light rain that could dampen scoring slightly. This condition is already accounted for in the model's assessment, which leans toward over 2.5 goals at 61%.
The most probable scorelines are balanced, with both 1-1 and 2-1 outcomes sitting at 10%. Slavia's impressive record of scoring in 15 consecutive league matches suggests Plzeň's defense will have their work cut out. Yet, with odds at 5.5 for an away win with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, a potential upset offers intriguing value, given the model's 24% probability for Plzeň against the generous odds.
In the betting markets, the sharpest angle lies with Plzeň's away win at odds of 5.5, where a 30% edge based on model ratings suggests a calculated gamble against the grain. While Slavia's form and historical edge make them the logical favorite, the volatility of football ensures that value lies where others might not see it.
Slavia PrahaForm DDWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #3xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Tomas ChoryFxG 0.98 · xT 0.02
- Mojmir ChytilFxG 0.73 · xT 0.07
- Wiktor NowakFxG 0.42 · xT 0.05
Viktoria PlzeňForm WDWDL
League ranking xG #4xGA #4xT #4xP/match #3Points #10
Key players
- Prince Kwabena AduFxG 0.69 · xT 0.08
- Amar MemicRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.19
- Patrik HrošovskýCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Slavia Praha – Viktoria Plzeň
Predicted score matrix
Viktoria Plzeň →
Slavia Praha →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.5%
0–15.0%
0–23.4%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–07.6%
1–110.4%
1–26.5%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.5%
2–19.6%
2–26.1%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–04.8%
3–16.1%
3–23.9%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–03.5%
4+–14.4%
4+–22.8%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,90–1,28
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@2.18
Over 2,561%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Slavia Praha to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Mojmír Chytil to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Mojmír Chytil to score23%
- Michal Sadílek to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Viktoria Plzeň24% probability@5.70BetsafeEV+34%reference odds
- 2 · Viktoria Plzeň24% probability@5.70BetssonEV+34%reference odds
- 2 · Viktoria Plzeň24% probability@5.70NordicbetEV+34%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Slavia Praha | X | 2 · Viktoria Plzeň |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.48 | EV+ 14% 4.25 | EV+ 34% 5.70 |
| Betsson | 1.48 | EV+ 14% 4.25 | EV+ 34% 5.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.48 | EV+ 14% 4.25 | EV+ 34% 5.70 |
Odds updated 18 Sept, 12:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Slavia Praha win since 14 September — the odds have shortened from 1.65 to 1.48 (−10%).
1-10 %
64 %54 %
1.65 → 1.48
X+13 %
28 %18 %
3.75 → 4.25
2+27 %
23 %13 %
4.50 → 5.70
Over 2,5-5 %
61 %51 %
1.68 → 1.60
Betsson · 11 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesSlavia Praha 5Draw 1Viktoria Plzeň 0
Goals: 18–7 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Key facts
- SK Slavia Prague dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 4.2 goals per meeting on average.
- SK Slavia Prague come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- SK Slavia Prague have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
- SK Slavia Prague win 90% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Slavia Praha
Viktoria Plzeň
Slavia Praha (23–5)
Viktoria Plzeň (16–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Slavia Praha
Viktoria Plzeň
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Slavia Praha
Viktoria Plzeň
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Slavia Praha | Viktoria Plzeň |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 10 |
| xPoints | 15 | 12.5 |
| xG per match | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.56 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Slavia Praha | Viktoria Plzeň |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.89 | 0.7 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.36 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 293 | 392 |
| Passes against per match | 242 | 300 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.8 | 27.4 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Slavia Praha | Viktoria Plzeň |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.53 |
| Other | Slavia Praha | Viktoria Plzeň |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Jakub Markovič (Slavia Praha) | Florian Wiegele (Viktoria Plzeň) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 22 |
| Save % | 74% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Slavia Praha vs Viktoria Plzeň according to our model?
The model gives Slavia Praha a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slavia Praha 50%, draw 27%, Viktoria Plzeň 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.