Jablonec vs Zlín: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Czech First League20 September 202613°7,6 mm20 km/h

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JablonecCounter-attacks & crosses

ZlínLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Jablonec (72%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.95 (+5 %)

1 · Jablonec 72%X 18%10% Zlín · 2

72%

18%

Analysis: Jablonec – Zlín

Sofia Andersson · 18 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Jablonec's recent dominance and Zlín's poor form set the stage for a one-sided affair. While Jablonec has a solid mix of counter-attacks and crosses, Zlín struggles with a low defensive block, which has contributed to their eight-game losing streak. The model heavily favors the home side with a 72% win probability and expects them to dictate play. Given Jablonec's propensity to exploit defensive lapses, Zlín's shaky backline could be in for a long night.

The numbers amplify this narrative. Jablonec's expected goals (xG) stand at a healthy 2.28 compared to Zlín's 0.74, pointing towards a comprehensive home victory. Most likely scorelines, such as 2-0 and 3-0, align with Jablonec's offensive capabilities and Zlín's defensive frailties. While the expected goals against (xGA) for Zlín hover at 1.7, Jablonec's tighter defense at 1.1 further tilts the odds in the hosts' favor.

Rain is in the forecast, with 7.6 mm expected, which may dampen goal-scoring opportunities but is already factored into the model's 58% lean towards over 2.5 goals. Even with precipitation potentially suppressing scoring, the probability suggests goals are still on the cards. The small two-game head-to-head sample offers little insight—both teams have one win each—so current form and xG numbers are more telling.

The sharpest angle here is the value on over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.95 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this as a 36% chance, providing a 5% edge. Expect a dominant Jablonec performance, leaning towards a 2-0 or 3-0 result, with the potential for more goals if conditions allow.

Jablonec

Form LDLWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #5xT #2xP/match #7Points #7

Key players

Matej PolidarLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.23
Martin CedidlaRBxG 0.12 · xT 0.11
Jan SuchanRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.11

Zlín

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #16xP/match #14Points #16

Key players

Daniel ŠmigaFxG 0.23 · xT 0.15
Marian PisojaRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.02
Naphthalene Frank AppiahRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Jablonec – Zlín

Predicted score matrix

Zlín →

Jablonec →

0–05.2%

0–13.4%

0–21.3%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.0%

1–18.5%

1–23.0%

1–30.7%

1–4+0.2%

2–012.8%

2–19.4%

2–23.4%

2–30.8%

2–4+0.2%

3–09.7%

3–17.1%

3–22.6%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–09.4%

4+–16.9%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.1-011%
3.3-010%
4.2-19%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,28–0,74

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@1.90

Over 2,558%

@1.80EV+4%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Jablonec to win72%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Jablonec to win72%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Antonín Růsek to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Antonín Růsek to score40%
Cletus Nombil to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.536% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
Over 3.536% probability@2.95BetssonEV+5%reference odds
Over 3.536% probability@2.95NordicbetEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Jablonec	X	2 · Zlín
Betsafe	1.38	4.30	7.20
Betsson	1.38	4.30	7.20
Nordicbet	1.38	4.30	7.20

Odds updated 18 Sept, 11:38

Odds movement

1-3 %

68 %63 %

1.42 → 1.38

X+4 %

24 %19 %

4.15 → 4.30

2+6 %

16 %11 %

6.80 → 7.20

Over 2,5-1 %

54 %49 %

1.82 → 1.80

Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Jablonec 1Draw 0Zlín 1

Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Zlin have lost 8 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Jablonec

Zlín

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Jablonec (10–8)

Zlín (7–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Jablonec

Zlín

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Jablonec

Zlín

The teams in numbers

Performance	Jablonec	Zlín
Points	13	0
xPoints	11.6	8.2
xG per match	1.5	0.92
xGA per match	1.1	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.36	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.24

Playing style	Jablonec	Zlín
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.47	0.35
xT per match	1.2	0.7
xTA per match	1.1	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	21	26
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.23
Entries into the box per match	12	9
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.77	0.67
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.6
Passes per match	362	234
Passes against per match	313	345
Switches of play per match	32.9	25.8
Long balls per match	36	34

Set pieces	Jablonec	Zlín
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.05
Corners per match	4.7	5
Corners against per match	4.3	5.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.64

Other	Jablonec	Zlín
Throw-in control	0.77	0.68

The goalkeepers	Klemen Mihelak (Jablonec)	Stanislav Dostal (Zlín)
Saves	12	18
Save %	75%	53%
xG prevented	37%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Jablonec

Fixtures, form & tips

Zlín

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Jablonec vs Zlín according to our model?

The model gives Jablonec a 72% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jablonec 72%, draw 18%, Zlín 10%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.