Teplice vs Slavia Praha: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Czech First League12 September 202616°3,7 mm8 km/h

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TepliceCounter-attacks & crosses

Slavia PrahaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Slavia Praha (58%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.72 (+11 %)

1 · Teplice 18%X 24%58% Slavia Praha · 2

18%

24%

58%

Analysis: Teplice – Slavia Praha

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Slavia Praha's streak of scoring in 14 consecutive league matches sets the stage for their encounter with Teplice. The visitors' unbeaten run in their last eight league games further underscores their dominant form. The model gives Slavia a 58% chance to win, highlighting their edge in this matchup. With expected goals favoring them 2.16 to Teplice's 1.09, the numbers suggest a likely victory for the visitors.

A 1-2 scoreline emerges as the most probable outcome at 10%, closely followed by 1-1 and 0-2, both at 9%. Despite Teplice's modest counter-attacking profile, the possession-oriented style of Slavia is expected to control the game. Given the expected rain of 10.3 mm, the weather's impact on goal-scoring is already considered in the model, which still leans heavily towards a high-scoring affair.

Although the head-to-head record since 2023 is a small sample size of four games, Slavia's edge in xG (2.5 to 1.4) and xGA (1.0 to 1.4) strengthens their case. The standout angle, however, lies in betting value: over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.72 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet presents an 11% edge per the model. Such a bet aligns with the 63% probability of the match seeing over 2.5 goals.

Teplice

Form DLLWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #5xP/match #8Points #6

Key players

Lukas MarecekCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
Matej RadostaRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.13
John AutaLWxG 0.39 · xT 0.01

Slavia Praha

Form WDDWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #3xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Tomas ChoryFxG 1.40 · xT 0.04
Mojmir ChytilFxG 0.80 · xT 0.02
Wiktor NowakFxG 0.46 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Teplice – Slavia Praha

Predicted score matrix

Slavia Praha →

Teplice →

0–04.1%

0–18.1%

0–29.0%

0–36.5%

0–4+5.8%

1–04.0%

1–19.4%

1–29.9%

1–37.1%

1–4+6.3%

2–02.3%

2–15.0%

2–25.4%

2–33.9%

2–4+3.4%

3–00.8%

3–11.8%

3–22.0%

3–31.4%

3–4+1.3%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-210%
2.1-19%
3.0-29%
4.0-18%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,09–2,16

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.02

Over 2,563%

@1.70EV+7%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Slavia Praha to win58%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Slavia Praha to win58%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Mojmír Chytil to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Mojmír Chytil to score31%
Michal Sadílek to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.541% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
Over 3.541% probability@2.72BetssonEV+11%reference odds
Over 3.541% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Teplice	X	2 · Slavia Praha
Betsafe	5.30	3.80	1.55
Betsson	5.30	3.80	1.55
Nordicbet	5.30	3.80	1.55

Odds updated 10 Sept, 09:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Teplice win since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 5.90 to 5.30 (−10%).

1-10 %

19 %14 %

5.90 → 5.30

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.80 → 3.80

2+3 %

62 %57 %

1.50 → 1.55

Over 2,5-1 %

56 %51 %

1.72 → 1.70

Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Teplice 1Draw 0Slavia Praha 3

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

Key facts

SK Slavia Prague are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
SK Slavia Prague have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Teplice

Slavia Praha

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Teplice (15–13)

Slavia Praha (21–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Teplice

Slavia Praha

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Teplice

Slavia Praha

The teams in numbers

Performance	Teplice	Slavia Praha
Points	13	17
xPoints	10.3	13.5
xG per match	1.4	2.5
xGA per match	1.4	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.58
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.09	0.2

Playing style	Teplice	Slavia Praha
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.34
Field tilt	0.55	0.58
xT per match	1.1	1.2
xTA per match	1	0.82
Won balls, offensive half	18	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.34
Entries into the box per match	12	16
Entries into the box against	11	9
Pass completion %	0.75	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.69
Passes per match	312	287
Passes against per match	335	238
Switches of play per match	22.1	25.1
Long balls per match	29	36

Set pieces	Teplice	Slavia Praha
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.01
Corners per match	6.5	5.2
Corners against per match	4	5
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.79	0.6

Other	Teplice	Slavia Praha
Throw-in control	0.69	0.71

The goalkeepers	Matous Trmal (Teplice)	Jakub Markovič (Slavia Praha)
Saves	21	12
Save %	62%	71%
xG prevented	42%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Teplice

Fixtures, form & tips

Slavia Praha

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Teplice vs Slavia Praha according to our model?

The model gives Slavia Praha a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Teplice 18%, draw 24%, Slavia Praha 58%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.