01 · 2 legs
Safe
- AGF to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Danish SuperligaCASA Arena, Horsens13°3,3 mm30 km/h
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HorsensPossession controlvs
AGFPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · AGF (48%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.85 (+7 %)
Horsens vs AGF · Danish Superliga
1 · Horsens 24%X 28%48% AGF · 2
24%
28%
48%
Analysis: Horsens – AGF
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The rain could dampen AGF's high press effectiveness, yet their overall quality should shine through.
For those looking to place a bet, AGF Aarhus to win presents potential value. The visitors' tactical superiority and statistical edge make them slight favorites, despite Horsens' better points record. Expect a tight match, but AGF's quality could see them edge it, potentially 1-2.
With AGF Aarhus bringing their high press to face Horsens' possession-oriented approach, this matchup promises an intriguing tactical battle. Horsens have had the upper hand in the points tally with 10 compared to AGF's 4, but the underlying numbers tell a more nuanced story. AGF Aarhus's expected goals per match stand at 1.7 compared to Horsens' 1.0, indicating that the visitors have been more potent offensively. This is reinforced by AGF's superior expected goals against (xGA) of 1.4 versus Horsens' 1.9, suggesting a defensive edge for the visitors as well.
The expected goals model leans towards AGF Aarhus with a 48% probability of winning, reflecting their ability to create quality chances and restrict opponents. While Horsens have been effective in accumulating points, their xPoints of 8.2, trailing AGF's 9.5, hint that the hosts might have been riding their luck. The most probable scorelines of 1-1, 1-2, and 0-1 illustrate a close contest, but AGF's offensive and defensive metrics give them the upper hand.
Weather conditions, with rain forecasted, suggest a potentially lower-scoring affair than the raw numbers might indicate. However, with a 61% chance of both teams scoring and a 59% likelihood for over 2.5 goals, the game could still see its fair share of action.
HorsensForm WWLWL
League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #12xP/match #12Points #7
Key players
- Kelvin Osemudiamen EhibhatiomhanFxG 0.39 · xT 0.02
- Yamirou OuorouRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.13
- Karlo LusavecCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.02
AGFForm LDLLD
League ranking xG #3xGA #7xT #6xP/match #5Points #11
Key players
- Gift LinksRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.23
- Sebastian JorgensenRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.23
- Frederik EmmeryLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.29
Match prediction: Horsens – AGF
Predicted score matrix
AGF →
Horsens →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–17.8%
0–26.9%
0–33.9%
0–4+2.5%
1
1–06.1%
1–111.2%
1–29.3%
1–35.3%
1–4+3.3%
2
2–04.3%
2–17.3%
2–26.2%
2–33.5%
2–4+2.2%
3
3–01.9%
3–13.3%
3–22.8%
3–31.6%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.5%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-17%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,34–1,70
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.12
Over 2,559%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- AGF to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Jens Jønsson to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Kelvin Osemudiamen Ehibhatiomhan to score26%
- Abdul Salam Moro to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw28% probability@3.85BetssonEV+7%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@3.85NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@3.80BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Horsens | X | 2 · AGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 4.10 | EV+ 5% 3.80 | 1.80 |
| Betsson | 4.15 | EV+ 7% 3.85 | 1.82 |
| Nordicbet | 4.15 | EV+ 7% 3.85 | 1.82 |
Odds updated 12 Sept, 17:37
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Horsens
AGF
Horsens (13–14)
AGF (9–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Horsens
AGF
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Horsens
AGF
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Horsens | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 4 |
| xPoints | 8.2 | 9.5 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Horsens | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 0.59 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 0.84 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 345 | 434 |
| Passes against per match | 417 | 278 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.3 | 24.3 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Horsens | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 2.9 | 8.3 |
| Corners against per match | 7.2 | 3.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| Other | Horsens | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Matej Delac (Horsens) | Mads Hedenstad Christiansen (AGF) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 27 | 15 |
| Save % | 69% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 43% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Horsens vs AGF according to our model?
The model gives AGF a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Horsens 24%, draw 28%, AGF 48%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.