Danish SuperligaEnergi Viborg Arena, Viborg12°15,3 mm29 km/h

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    ViborgViborgCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    NordsjællandNordsjællandPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Nordsjælland (41%)

    Viborg vs Nordsjælland · Danish Superliga

    1 · Viborg 31%X 27%41% Nordsjælland · 2

    Analysis: Viborg – Nordsjælland

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    FC Nordsjælland's high-octane pressing system faces a tactical challenge against Viborg's counter-attacking prowess. The model's lean towards the visitors is reinforced by their superior xG rate of 2.2 per match compared to Viborg's 1.5. This attacking efficiency, coupled with the expected rain, suggests that Nordsjælland may still find the back of the net more frequently.

    Historically, the head-to-head record since 2022 is evenly split at three wins each, which is statistically significant given the sample size of six matches. However, Nordsjælland's slight edge in both points and xPoints this season underscores their current form advantage. Viborg’s strategy will revolve around exploiting transitional moments, a method that has previously yielded success against Nordsjælland's high line.

    Goals are expected, with a 56% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. The weather forecast of rain could dampen scoring chances slightly, and these conditions are already factored into the model's projections. The most probable scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 indicate a tightly contested match, though the visitors' attacking depth could tip the scales.

    For those seeking value, Unibet offers 2.45 on FC Nordsjælland to win, aligning with the model's 41% win probability for the visitors. This represents a potential edge given their current form and tactical acumen. Expect a closely fought battle, but the numbers favor Nordsjælland edging it, with 1-2 the most fitting scoreline.

    ViborgViborg
    Form DWWWL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #3xT #7xP/match #4Points #4
    Key players
    • Oliver BundgaardLWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.16
    • Charly NouckLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.21
    • Lukas Emil KirkegaardCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
    NordsjællandNordsjælland
    Form WWWLD
    League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #2xP/match #1Points #3
    Key players
    • Justin JanssenCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.17
    • Villum BerthelsenFxG 0.26 · xT 0.13
    • Ibrahim Adel Ali Mohamed HassanFxG 0.59 · xT 0.35

    Match prediction: Viborg – Nordsjælland

    Predicted score matrix

    Nordsjælland →
    Viborg →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.7%
    0–18.2%
    0–26.9%
    0–33.7%
    0–4+2.1%
    1
    1–06.7%
    1–111.7%
    1–29.1%
    1–34.9%
    1–4+2.8%
    2
    2–04.7%
    2–17.5%
    2–26.0%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.9%
    3
    3–02.1%
    3–13.3%
    3–22.7%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–11.5%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.0-27%
    Expected goals
    1,32–1,61
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    –
    Over 2,556%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Nordsjælland or draw (X2)69%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.82

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Nordsjælland or draw (X2)69%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Alexander Lucas Lind Rasmussen to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Dorian Junior Hanza Meha to score22%
    • Justin Meltofte Janssen to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Viborg 3Draw 0Nordsjælland 3
    Goals: 8–8 (⌀ 2,7)

    Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Viborg
    Nordsjælland
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Viborg (10–6)
    Nordsjælland (11–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Viborg
    Zan Zaletel: 375 passningar, xT 0.48ZaletelLukas Emil Kirkegaard: 365 passningar, xT 0.79KirkegaardJeppe Gronning: 217 passningar, xT 0.28GronningOliver Bundgaard: 199 passningar, xT 0.91BundgaardKasper Hartly Kiilerich: 137 passningar, xT 0.08KiilerichAsker Beck: 120 passningar, xT 0.23BeckSami Jalal: 116 passningar, xT 0.87JalalSrdjan Kuzmic: 115 passningar, xT 0.17KuzmicHjalte Bidstrup: 70 passningar, xT 0.35BidstrupMads Sondergaard: 69 passningar, xT 0.23SondergaardCharly Nouck: 62 passningar, xT 1Nouck
    Nordsjælland
    Stephen Acquah: 329 passningar, xT 0.3AcquahJustin Janssen: 262 passningar, xT 0.66JanssenNoah Markmann: 249 passningar, xT 0.19MarkmannPeter Ankersen: 239 passningar, xT 1.15AnkersenTobias Salquist: 197 passningar, xT 0.15SalquistAndreas Hansen: 185 passningar, xT -0.02HansenJuho Lahteenmaki: 151 passningar, xT 0.56LahteenmakiMark Brink: 132 passningar, xT 0.2BrinkRunar Norheim: 115 passningar, xT 0.24NorheimNicklas Rojkjaer: 114 passningar, xT 0.15RojkjaerVillum Berthelsen: 82 passningar, xT 0.16Berthelsen
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Viborg
    Zan Zaletel: 375 passningar, xT 0.48ZaletelLukas Emil Kirkegaard: 365 passningar, xT 0.79KirkegaardJeppe Gronning: 217 passningar, xT 0.28GronningOliver Bundgaard: 199 passningar, xT 0.91BundgaardKasper Hartly Kiilerich: 137 passningar, xT 0.08KiilerichAsker Beck: 120 passningar, xT 0.23BeckSami Jalal: 116 passningar, xT 0.87JalalSrdjan Kuzmic: 115 passningar, xT 0.17KuzmicHjalte Bidstrup: 70 passningar, xT 0.35BidstrupMads Sondergaard: 69 passningar, xT 0.23SondergaardCharly Nouck: 62 passningar, xT 1Nouck
    Nordsjælland
    Stephen Acquah: 329 passningar, xT 0.3AcquahJustin Janssen: 262 passningar, xT 0.66JanssenNoah Markmann: 249 passningar, xT 0.19MarkmannPeter Ankersen: 239 passningar, xT 1.15AnkersenTobias Salquist: 197 passningar, xT 0.15SalquistAndreas Hansen: 185 passningar, xT -0.02HansenJuho Lahteenmaki: 151 passningar, xT 0.56LahteenmakiMark Brink: 132 passningar, xT 0.2BrinkRunar Norheim: 115 passningar, xT 0.24NorheimNicklas Rojkjaer: 114 passningar, xT 0.15RojkjaerVillum Berthelsen: 82 passningar, xT 0.16Berthelsen

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceViborgNordsjælland
    Points1314
    xPoints11.712.3
    xG per match1.52.2
    xGA per match1.21.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.260.34
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.17
    Playing styleViborgNordsjælland
    Build-up efficiency0.310.34
    Field tilt0.430.58
    xT per match1.11.5
    xTA per match0.890.88
    Won balls, offensive half2327
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.270.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.23
    Entries into the box per match1519
    Entries into the box against1111
    Pass completion %0.780.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.77
    Passes per match381528
    Passes against per match402369
    Switches of play per match31.923.8
    Long balls per match3233
    Set piecesViborgNordsjælland
    xG from free kicks0.030.09
    Corners per match4.96.2
    Corners against per match6.53.8
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.240.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.640.62
    OtherViborgNordsjælland
    Throw-in control0.660.78
    The goalkeepersKasper Hartly Kiilerich (Viborg)Andreas Hansen (Nordsjælland)
    Saves2122
    Save %78%79%
    xG prevented49%50%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Viborg
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Nordsjælland
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Viborg vs Nordsjælland according to our model?

    The model gives Nordsjælland a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viborg 31%, draw 27%, Nordsjælland 41%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    LyngbyLyngby
    2–2
    AGFAGF
    1 29%X 22%2 49%
    The model missed the outcome
    NordsjællandNordsjælland
    1–0
    RandersRanders
    1 55%X 21%2 24%
    The model called the outcome
    MidtjyllandMidtjylland
    2–1
    HorsensHorsens
    1 60%X 21%2 18%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.