01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Midtjylland to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Danish SuperligaNature Energy Park, Odense16°6,9 mm32 km/h
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OdensePossession & high pressvs
MidtjyllandPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Midtjylland (50%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 17.00 (+18 %)
Odense vs Midtjylland · Danish Superliga
1 · Odense 26%X 24%50% Midtjylland · 2
26%
24%
50%
Analysis: Odense – Midtjylland
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Midtjylland's unbeaten run in their last seven league matches suggests a team in form, and their upcoming clash with Odense is likely to reflect that. Midtjylland's playing style emphasizes possession control, which has been effective in maintaining their impressive scoring streak of eight consecutive league matches. Conversely, Odense's high press could cause disruption, but given their lower points tally and a less impressive recent form, the visitors have the edge.
The most likely scorelines—1-1, followed by 0-1 and 1-2—highlight a match where goals might still be limited, especially with the damp conditions from the expected 3.0 mm of rain potentially playing a role in slowing the game down. This could slightly suppress the goal-scoring potential, already baked into the model's numbers. The 51% probability for over 2.5 goals suggests a cautious outlook on a goal-heavy game.
Interestingly, Odense has a slight edge in expected goals per match at 1.6 compared to Midtjylland's 1.4, but this is countered by their higher expected goals against at 1.5, compared to Midtjylland's more solid 1.1. This defensive stability could be the deciding factor, with Midtjylland's ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities likely to tilt the match in their favor.
Given the 50% model probability for a Midtjylland win and their strong league form, the visitors are justifiably favored. The most sensible betting angle might focus on the moneyline for a Midtjylland victory, particularly if odds exceed 2.00, indicating value. Expect a narrow win for the visitors, possibly 1-2, with the potential for over 2.5 goals finely balanced, but leaning slightly under due to the conditions.
OdenseForm LLDDL
League ranking xG #5xGA #9xT #4xP/match #8Points #10
Key players
- Fiete ArpCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
- Rasmus FalkCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.27
- Jakob BondeCMxG 0.29 · xT 0.13
MidtjyllandForm DWDWD
League ranking xG #8xGA #1xT #1xP/match #6Points #2
Key players
- Darío OsorioRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.44
- Valdemar ByskovLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.15
- Friday Ubi EtimFxG 0.45 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Odense – Midtjylland
Predicted score matrix
Midtjylland →
Odense →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.9%
0–110.4%
0–28.8%
0–34.8%
0–4+2.8%
1
1–06.8%
1–112.1%
1–29.5%
1–35.2%
1–4+3.0%
2
2–03.9%
2–16.4%
2–25.2%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–01.4%
3–12.3%
3–21.9%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,09–1,63
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.28EV+12%
Over 2,551%
@1.62
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Midtjylland to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Friday Ubi Etim to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Noah Ganaus to score23%
- Wandepanga Ismahila Ouédraogo to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.57% probability@17.00BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
- Under 0.57% probability@17.00BetssonEV+18%reference odds
- Under 0.57% probability@17.00NordicbetEV+18%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Odense | X | 2 · Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 8% 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.78 |
| Betsson | EV+ 10% 4.30 | 3.90 | 1.78 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 10% 4.30 | 3.90 | 1.78 |
Odds updated 12 Sept, 18:37
Odds movement
1-4 %
24 %19 %
4.50 → 4.30
X0 %
27 %22 %
3.90 → 3.90
2+2 %
56 %51 %
1.75 → 1.78
Over 2,50 %
61 %56 %
1.62 → 1.62
Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 12/09/2026 → 12/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesOdense 0Draw 1Midtjylland 1
Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 5,5)
Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
- Midtjylland have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Odense
Midtjylland
Odense (5–12)
Midtjylland (12–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Odense
Midtjylland
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Odense
Midtjylland
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Odense | Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 15 |
| xPoints | 8.9 | 9.4 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Odense | Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.89 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 427 | 344 |
| Passes against per match | 387 | 279 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.2 | 34.6 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 45 |
| Set pieces | Odense | Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 5.9 |
| Corners against per match | 6.6 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.2 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| Other | Odense | Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Viljar Myhra (Odense) | Elias Olafsson (Midtjylland) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 15 |
| Save % | 54% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 28% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Odense vs Midtjylland according to our model?
The model gives Midtjylland a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Odense 26%, draw 24%, Midtjylland 50%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.