Lyngby vs Randers Prediction: Home win 48% (30 Oct 2026)

Danish Superliga30 October 2026Lyngby Stadion, Kongens Lyngby

Läs på svenska

LyngbyPossession & high press

RandersLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Lyngby (48%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.80 (+1 %)

1 · Lyngby 48%X 27%25% Randers · 2

48%

27%

25%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lyngby vs Randers (Danish Superliga, Friday, 30 October 2026): Lyngby win 48%, draw 27%, Randers win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Lyngby 1.66, Randers 1.21. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Lyngby or draw 75%, Randers or draw 52%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Lyngby – Randers

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

A telling number here is Lyngby Boldklub's 48% chance of winning, clearly positioning them as favorites. Despite trailing Randers by three points in the league, the hosts have a clear edge in expected goals: 1.66 to 1.21. This suggests that Lyngby's possession-driven, high-pressing approach may be more effective than Randers' low defensive setup and reliance on direct play. With both teams expected to score and a slight lean towards more than 2.5 goals, this match-up hints at a potentially lively contest, despite Lyngby’s winless head-to-head record against Randers since 2022.

The expected goals data further strengthens Lyngby's case. Their xG of 1.7 per match, compared to Randers' 1.1, underscores a more potent attacking threat, while their xGA of 1.4 suggests a slightly tighter defense than Randers, who concede an average of 1.5 xGA. This defensive discrepancy could play a pivotal role, especially as the model's most likely scorelines hover around the narrow margins of 1-1 and 2-1.

An analysis of the betting markets reveals a potential value spot: Lyngby to win outright at 48% probability. Given the model's lean and the underlying xG numbers, backing the hosts at odds reflecting this probability might offer positive expected value for shrewd punters.

Lyngby

Form WDLLD

League ranking xG #3xGA #6xT #5xP/match #4Points #12

Key players

Casper WintherCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
Gustav FrauloRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.21
Lauge SandgravCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.16

Randers

Form WLLLD

League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #10xP/match #8Points #9

Key players

Mike ThemsenRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.12
Elies MahmoudRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
Laurits PedersenCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Lyngby – Randers

Predicted score matrix

Randers →

Lyngby →

0–06.1%

0–16.6%

0–24.2%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.7%

1–09.1%

1–111.7%

1–26.9%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.8%

2–19.5%

2–25.7%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.3%

3–15.2%

3–23.1%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.6%

4+–13.1%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,66–1,21

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

–

Over 2,555%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lyngby to win48%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lyngby to win48%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Ísak Snær Þorvaldsson to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Ísak Snær Þorvaldsson to score22%
Mathias Peter Greve Petersen to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw27% probability@3.80LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
1 · Lyngby48% probability@2.10LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lyngby	X	2 · Randers
LeoVegas	EV+ 1% 2.10	EV+ 1% 3.80	3.10

Odds updated 23 Oct, 20:37

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Lyngby 0Draw 2Randers 1

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 1,3)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lyngby

Randers

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lyngby (15–24)

Randers (11–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lyngby

Randers

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lyngby

Randers

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lyngby	Randers
Points	8	11
xPoints	16.3	14.1
xG per match	1.7	1.1
xGA per match	1.4	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.38	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.32

Playing style	Lyngby	Randers
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.65	0.39
xT per match	1.2	0.85
xTA per match	1.1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	34	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.21
Entries into the box per match	16	11
Entries into the box against	15	16
Pass completion %	0.75	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.69
Passes per match	365	344
Passes against per match	378	458
Switches of play per match	12.2	23.6
Long balls per match	24	30

Set pieces	Lyngby	Randers
xG from free kicks	0.17	0.03
Corners per match	5.1	4.3
Corners against per match	4.7	7.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.72

Other	Lyngby	Randers
Throw-in control	0.66	0.72

The goalkeepers	Diego Kochen (Lyngby)	Paul Izzo (Randers)
Saves	30	24
Save %	56%	73%
xG prevented	47%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lyngby

Fixtures, form & tips

Randers

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lyngby vs Randers according to our model?

The model gives Lyngby a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lyngby 48%, draw 27%, Randers 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Lyngby vs Randers?

The model expects 1.66 goals (xG) for Lyngby and 1.21 for Randers, 2.86 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Lyngby or draw (1X) 75%, Randers or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.