Eerste Divisie16°18 km/h

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    Jong UtrechtJong UtrechtPossession control
    vs
    Heracles AlmeloHeracles AlmeloCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Heracles Almelo (43%)Best value by the model: 1 · Jong Utrecht @ 4.90 (+53 %)
    Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

    Jong Utrecht – Heracles Almelo · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Jong Utrecht 31%X 26%43% Heracles Almelo · 2

    Analysis: Jong Utrecht – Heracles Almelo

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Heracles Almelo's xG per match stands at an imposing 3.1 compared to Jong Utrecht's 0.81, underscoring a stark contrast in attacking prowess. This disparity is mirrored in their points tally, with the visitors securing a perfect 6 compared to the hosts' zero. Heracles' robust counter-attacking style coupled with effective cross utilization squares off against Utrecht's possession-focused approach, setting the stage for a tactical clash.

    While the model gives Heracles a 43% chance of victory, the most frequent predicted scoreline, 1-1, at 12%, suggests a closer contest than their current form might imply. Both teams to score is pegged at 58%, hinting at potential defensive lapses on both sides. Despite Heracles' superior xGA of 1.1 against Utrecht's 2.1, the expected goals tally is almost evenly matched, with Utrecht at 1.42 and Heracles at 1.41.

    The real intrigue lies in the value bets available. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer enticing odds of 4.9 for a Jong Utrecht win, a significant overlay since the model rates it at a 31% likelihood, presenting a 53% edge. This makes a punt on the hosts an appealing gamble in a matchup where the numbers hint at possible surprise outcomes.

    Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht
    Form WDWLL
    League ranking xG #20xGA #15xT #17xP/match #18Points #20
    Key players
    • Noa DundasFxG 0.24 · xT 0.07
    • Driss LaaouinaCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.15
    • Levi RietveldLWxG 0.02 · xT -0.08
    Heracles AlmeloHeracles Almelo
    Form WW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #5xT #4xP/match #2Points #3
    Key players
    • Djevencio Djovairo van der KustCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
    • Jean-Paul N'djoliCAMxG 1.00 · xT 0.08
    • Max HauswirthLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.17

    Match prediction: Jong Utrecht – Heracles Almelo

    Predicted score matrix

    Heracles Almelo →
    Jong Utrecht →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.3%
    0–18.0%
    0–25.8%
    0–32.7%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–08.1%
    1–112.2%
    1–28.3%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+1.9%
    2
    2–06.0%
    2–18.4%
    2–25.9%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.3%
    3
    3–02.8%
    3–14.0%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–01.4%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-18%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.0-18%
    Expected goals
    1,42–1,41
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.68EV+24%
    Over 2,554%
    @1.44

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Heracles Almelo or draw (X2)63%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.07

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Heracles Almelo or draw (X2)63%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Jean-Paul N'djoli to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Jean-Paul N'djoli to score24%
    • Per Kloosterboer to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Jong Utrecht31% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+53%reference odds
    • 1 · Jong Utrecht31% probability@4.90BetssonEV+53%reference odds
    • 1 · Jong Utrecht31% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+53%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Jong UtrechtX2 · Heracles Almelo
    Betsafe
    EV+ 53%
    4.90
    EV+ 7%
    4.15    		1.58
    Betsson
    EV+ 53%
    4.90
    EV+ 7%
    4.15    		1.58
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 53%
    4.90
    EV+ 7%
    4.15    		1.58

    Odds updated 19 Aug, 05:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Heracles Almelo win since 17 August — the odds have shortened from 1.80 to 1.58 (−12%).

    1+24 %
    27 %17 %

    3.95 → 4.90

    X+15 %
    29 %19 %

    3.60 → 4.15

    2-12 %
    59 %49 %

    1.80 → 1.58

    Over 2,5-5 %
    68 %58 %

    1.52 → 1.44

    Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Jong Utrecht
    Heracles Almelo
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Jong Utrecht (2–5)
    Heracles Almelo (7–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Jong Utrecht
    Driss Laaouina: 72 passningar, xT 0.29LaaouinaJamie Schuldes: 64 passningar, xT 0.18SchuldesMassien Ghaddari: 55 passningar, xT 0.27GhaddariViggo Plantinga: 54 passningar, xT 0.01PlantingaBjorn Menzo: 47 passningar, xT 0.19MenzoPer Kloosterboer: 36 passningar, xT 0.06KloosterboerMees Eppink: 30 passningar, xT 0.14EppinkChukwuemeka Adiele: 20 passningar, xT 0.4AdieleJessey Sneijder: 16 passningar, xT 0SneijderKevin Gadellaa: 15 passningar, xT 0.09GadellaaTijn den Boggende: 14 passningar, xT -0.04Boggende
    Heracles Almelo
    Damon Mirani: 80 passningar, xT 0.19MiraniMario Borac: 77 passningar, xT 0.1BoracDjevencio Djovairo van der Kust: 73 passningar, xT 0.12KustSem Scheperman: 67 passningar, xT 0.08SchepermanDavid Vicente Robles: 66 passningar, xT 0.51RoblesFabian de Keijzer: 54 passningar, xT 0.3KeijzerMax Hauswirth: 52 passningar, xT 0.3HauswirthChafik Abbas: 44 passningar, xT 0.53AbbasTristan van Gilst: 42 passningar, xT 0.57GilstJean-Paul N'djoli: 25 passningar, xT 0.43N'djoliManny Rodriguez Baldera: 25 passningar, xT 0.24Baldera
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Jong Utrecht
    Driss Laaouina: 72 passningar, xT 0.29LaaouinaJamie Schuldes: 64 passningar, xT 0.18SchuldesMassien Ghaddari: 55 passningar, xT 0.27GhaddariViggo Plantinga: 54 passningar, xT 0.01PlantingaBjorn Menzo: 47 passningar, xT 0.19MenzoPer Kloosterboer: 36 passningar, xT 0.06KloosterboerMees Eppink: 30 passningar, xT 0.14EppinkChukwuemeka Adiele: 20 passningar, xT 0.4AdieleJessey Sneijder: 16 passningar, xT 0SneijderKevin Gadellaa: 15 passningar, xT 0.09GadellaaTijn den Boggende: 14 passningar, xT -0.04Boggende
    Heracles Almelo
    Damon Mirani: 80 passningar, xT 0.19MiraniMario Borac: 77 passningar, xT 0.1BoracDjevencio Djovairo van der Kust: 73 passningar, xT 0.12KustSem Scheperman: 67 passningar, xT 0.08SchepermanDavid Vicente Robles: 66 passningar, xT 0.51RoblesFabian de Keijzer: 54 passningar, xT 0.3KeijzerMax Hauswirth: 52 passningar, xT 0.3HauswirthChafik Abbas: 44 passningar, xT 0.53AbbasTristan van Gilst: 42 passningar, xT 0.57GilstJean-Paul N'djoli: 25 passningar, xT 0.43N'djoliManny Rodriguez Baldera: 25 passningar, xT 0.24Baldera

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJong UtrechtHeracles Almelo
    Points06
    xPoints1.84.2
    xG per match0.813.1
    xGA per match2.11.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.090.66
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.590.2
    Playing styleJong UtrechtHeracles Almelo
    Build-up efficiency0.280.3
    Field tilt0.290.73
    xT per match0.861.9
    xTA per match1.61.2
    Won balls, offensive half2133
    Pressing intensity0.260.22
    Pressing efficiency0.270.39
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.290.33
    Entries into the box per match1116
    Entries into the box against1612
    Pass completion %0.680.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.630.64
    Passes per match235323
    Passes against per match410233
    Switches of play per match24.425.1
    Long balls per match3342
    Set piecesJong UtrechtHeracles Almelo
    xG from free kicks0.030
    Corners per match47.9
    Corners against per match35.4
    xG per corner0.060.06
    xGA per corner against0.010.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.750.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.45
    OtherJong UtrechtHeracles Almelo
    Throw-in control0.570.8
    The goalkeepersMees Eppink (Jong Utrecht)Fabian de Keijzer (Heracles Almelo)
    Saves64
    Save %75%44%
    xG prevented77%16%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Jong Utrecht vs Heracles Almelo according to our model?

    The model gives Heracles Almelo a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong Utrecht 31%, draw 26%, Heracles Almelo 43%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.