Wimbledon vs Stevenage Prediction: Away win 43% (3 Oct 2026)

EFL League One3 October 2026Plough Lane, London16°2,2 mm18 km/h

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WimbledonLow block & direct

StevenagePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Stevenage (43%)

1 · Wimbledon 27%X 30%43% Stevenage · 2

27%

30%

43%

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Analysis: Wimbledon – Stevenage

Sofia Andersson · 25 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Stevenage's 43% win probability stands out, backed by their possession control style against Wimbledon's more direct approach. Despite sitting behind the hosts in actual points (11 vs 9), Stevenage’s slight edge in xPoints (9.6 vs 8.4) suggests they're more efficient than the table shows. The visitors' xGA of 1.0 further contrasts with Wimbledon's more porous 1.4, indicating Stevenage’s stronger defensive foundation.

The expected goals (1.20 for Stevenage and 1.10 for Wimbledon) suggest a tight match, with the model pointing towards a narrow Stevenage win. Most likely scorelines reinforce this — a 1-1 draw (14%) is the top prediction, closely followed by a 0-1 win for the visitors (12%). With a 47% chance of both teams scoring and just a 40% likelihood of exceeding 2.5 goals, a low-scoring match seems probable.

Stevenage's recent head-to-head advantage is based on a mere two-game sample, insufficient to outweigh broader form data. There's value in a Stevenage victory, aligning with both the model's lean and the defensive metrics. For bettors seeking precision, this represents the sharpest angle on the match.

Wimbledon

Form WLWWD

League ranking xG #19xGA #13xT #12xP/match #18Points #7

Key players

Jayden Connor StockleyFxG 0.31 · xT 0.02
Steven Jeffrey SeddonLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.13
Ryan Anthony JohnsonCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

Stevenage

Form DDWWL

League ranking xG #21xGA #4xT #18xP/match #13Points #14

Key players

Jamie ReidFxG 0.09 · xT 0.01
Oliver SandersonRWxG 0.46 · xT 0.13
Carl PiergianniCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Wimbledon – Stevenage

Predicted score matrix

Stevenage →

Wimbledon →

0–010.5%

0–111.7%

0–27.2%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.1%

1–010.7%

1–113.6%

1–27.9%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.2%

2–06.1%

2–17.3%

2–24.4%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.2%

3–12.7%

3–21.6%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.8%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-112%
3.1-011%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,10–1,20

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

–

Over 2,540%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Stevenage or draw (X2)67%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Stevenage or draw (X2)67%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Joshua Brendan David Magennis to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Joshua Brendan David Magennis to score19%
Daniel Shaquille Jabari Phillips to be booked24%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Wimbledon 0Draw 1Stevenage 1

Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 0,5)

Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wimbledon

Stevenage

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wimbledon (5–7)

Stevenage (11–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wimbledon

Stevenage

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wimbledon

Stevenage

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wimbledon	Stevenage
Points	11	9
xPoints	8.4	9.6
xG per match	1.1	1
xGA per match	1.4	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.25

Playing style	Wimbledon	Stevenage
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.31
Field tilt	0.53	0.48
xT per match	0.95	0.81
xTA per match	1	0.73
Won balls, offensive half	28	36
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.38
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.36
Entries into the box per match	13	12
Entries into the box against	12	10
Pass completion %	0.66	0.62
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.59
Passes per match	252	230
Passes against per match	303	329
Switches of play per match	13.3	20.3
Long balls per match	26	38

Set pieces	Wimbledon	Stevenage
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.05
Corners per match	5.6	4.1
Corners against per match	5.7	4.9
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.65

Other	Wimbledon	Stevenage
Throw-in control	0.71	0.74

The goalkeepers	Josef John Bursik (Wimbledon)	Lewis Freestone (Stevenage)
Saves	13	8
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Wimbledon

Fixtures, form & tips

Stevenage

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wimbledon vs Stevenage according to our model?

The model gives Stevenage a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wimbledon 27%, draw 30%, Stevenage 43%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.